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Stationary Sources Joint Forum: Stationary/Area Source Emission Projections

Final Documents

WRAP PRP18b Emissions Inventory (10/16/09 revised*)
* Revised final memorandum includes revised emissions estimates for the Otter Tail Power Company – Big Stone I and Big Stone II facilities located in South Dakota. Tables 8c, 8e and 8f, and the table on Page A1-20 were affected.

The objective of this project was to make a second revision to the 2018 emissions inventory projections for point and area sources in the WRAP region to provide a more current assessment of the reasonable progress toward visibility goals by the WRAP. The focus of this project was to address specific changes that have occurred since completion of the PRP 18a inventory in 2007. The resulting product is the second version of the WRAP region Preliminary Reasonable Progress emissions inventory for 2018, known as PRP18b. PDF (10/16/09 ERG Technical Memo).

The PRP18b inventory revisions included the following elements:

  • Included all updated BART information available:
    1. Incorporated all available formal BART determinations;
    2. Made and incorporated estimates of expected BART control levels where BART determinations had not been finalized (BART estimates made for both SO2 and NOx);
    3. Addressed all “BART-eligible” or “Subject to BART” sources, both for EGU’s and for the Non-EGU universe;
  • Revised projections of “future” fossil-fuel plants needed to meet federal electrical generation demand forecasts in 2018 (used updated EIA projections of 2018 energy requirements – for the first time incorporated Renewable Energy Portfolios where available - determined that existing WRAP region electric generating capacity, when added to existing State/Local agency EGU permits, was sufficient to meet 2018 demand without addition of any new future EGU units);
  • Incorporated all new rulemaking, permit limits, and consent decrees instituted since 2007; and
  • Corrected other outstanding issues that were identified by the federal, state, or local agencies within the WRAP domain as needing to be revised/updated:
    1. Modification of various inventory data to be consistent with the Plan 02d emissions inventory (name changes, updated stack parameters, new or removed sources, etc.)
    2. Revision of a limited number of area source categories (i.e., fuel combustion emissions in South Dakota and California, gasoline distribution emissions in Idaho, residential wood combustion emissions in Washington, construction dust in [Clark County] Nevada).
    3. Revision of facility information (e.g., facility IDs, facility names, unit IDs, process IDs, SCCs, SICs, etc.) based upon agency input.
    4. Revision of stack parameters based upon agency input.
    5. Addition of WRAP Phase II oil and gas project emissions to PRP 18a Area Source Emission Summaries in order to provide relevant comparisons to the emission totals in PRP 18b which also contained O&G emission totals.

WRAP PRP18a Emissions Inventory (06/16/07)

The objective of this project is to provide the technical basis for making preliminary evaluations of reasonable progress toward individual Class I area visibility goals by the WRAP. This was done by updating the WRAP region 2018 point and area sources emission inventory projections from the 2018 Base Case version 1 project, completed by Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG) and ENVIRON in January 2006. The resulting emissions inventory is the first version of the WRAP region Preliminary Reasonable Progress emissions inventory for 2018 (identified as PRP18a).

The scope of this project was purposely limited and focused on the most significant point and area sources of 2018 emissions in order to complete the work in a timely and efficient manner for both the State and Local (S/L) agencies reviewing the data and providing comments, as well as for ERG, performing the analysis and making the updates.

This FINAL technical memo describes the project scope, explains the methodology used to compile data and prepare the WRAP PRP18a emissions inventory, and presents summary results for the WRAP region and detailed results for each jurisdiction PDF

WRAP staff telephoned each WRAP state in early May to discuss application of presumptive BART SO2 emissions rates and review other changes noted in an earlier draft of the ERG technical memo.  This spreadsheet summarizes all comments received from the S/L agencies regarding the previous 2018b base case inventory, and the responses ERG took to address these comments.  In addition the spreadsheet identifies those issues that were either not identified in time, or were judged to be more appropriately addressed in planned revisions to the baseline period (2000-04) and subsequent 2018 emission inventories. XLS

Scope of Work: WRAP 2018 Preliminary Reasonable Progress Emissions Inventory Analysis PDF or DOC

Baseline and 2018 SO2 Emission Inventory for Non-EGUs in the 5 States Participating in the Western Backstop Program (11/20/06)

  • Final Pechan Report PDF or DOC
  • Summary Presentation PDF or PPT

2018 WRAP Base Case Inventory for Point and Area Sources (Version 1)
On behalf of the SSJF, and under the direction of the Projections Work Group, ERG has developed the 2018 base case inventory (Version 1) for point and area sources in the WRAP states. This inventory is based upon the recently QA'd and revised 2002 WRAP point and area source inventory, and various adjustment, control, and growth factors. A special method was used for electric generating units (EGUs) to address projections of electricity generation in the Western states between 2002 and 2018. The results of the 2018 base case (Version 1) are under review by the WRAP states/local agencies, tribes, and other stakeholders. ERG's deliverables include the Version 1 report and a variety of emission summaries, including side-by-side comparisons of the 2018 base case (Version 1) to the revised 2002 inventory for point and area sources. Please contact Tom Moore with questions and comments. PDF (1/25/06)

2002 WRAP Point and Area Source Inventory
On behalf of the SSJF, ERG has completed a quality assurance review and revision of the 2002 point and area source inventory. This review and subsequent revisions to the inventory addressed completeness (i.e., geographic coverage, pollutant coverage, and control device information), and possible outliers (i.e., identified facility-, source category-, and county-level problems by comparing to other similar inventories). Also, changes submitted by state, local, and tribal agencies to U.S. EPA in June 2005 as part of the NEI review process have been incorporated. Other work conducted by ERG and ENVIRON have been incorporated into the revised inventory, including new tribal point source emissions and new/revised area source emissions for oil and gas exploration. Please contact Tom Moore with questions and comments. PDF (1/27/06)

  • 2002 WRAP Area Sources, by County XLS
  • 2002 WRAP Point Sources, by County XLS

Draft Documents


Archived Documents

2018 Response-to-Comments Table
ERG prepared a table of comments received on the draft 2018 WRAP point and area source base case projections, along with responses. The table indicates which agency/person made the comment, paraphrases each comments, and describes how ERG addressed the comment within the 2018 projection calculation, or report. PDF (12/21/05)

2018 Base Case (Version 1) Area and Point Source EI Spreadsheets, by State and Tribe. These files contain the detailed calculations that were used to develop the 2018 base case (Version 1) emissions inventory. There is one spreadsheet for each state and one for all tribes (combined). For California, a file containing the growth and control factors is provided. (Zipped XLS)

  • Tribes ZIP (1.3MB)
  • Alaska ZIP (3MB)
  • Arizona ZIP (2.6MB)
  • California ZIP (growth & control, 1MB)
  • Colorado ZIP (9.7MB)
  • Idaho ZIP (1.8MB)
  • Montana ZIP (4.2MB)
  • Nevada ZIP (2.6MB)
  • New Mexico ZIP (5.6MB)
  • North Dakota ZIP (2.6MB)
  • Oregon ZIP (2.5MB)
  • South Dakota ZIP (2.4MB)
  • Utah ZIP (6.7MB)
  • Washington ZIP (3.5MB)
  • Wyoming ZIP (2.8MB)

ERG Status Report to Emissions Forum (09/27/05) PDF or PPT (2.2MB)

ERG Status Report to the WRAP Board (05/17/05) PDF

Part F Table (3/14/05) This table contains the findings to-date of the interviews with state and local air agencies to collecting information on point sources related to the post-2002 timeframe (sources coming on line or retiring after 2002, emission limits resulting from consent decrees in effect after 2002, etc.). These data will be used to quantify the "adjustment" and "control" factors listed on the projections calculations spreadsheet.

  • Part F Table XLS (08/10/05)
  • Part F Table XLS (04/07/05)
  • Part F Table XLS (03/14/05)

ERG Work Plan for Projections Task 1.C PDF or DOC (01/06/05)

Call Notes

Work Group Members

Lee Alter
[email protected]
Lori Campbell [email protected]
Patrick Cummins [email protected]
Bob Downing [email protected]
Mike Edwards [email protected]
Tom Moore [email protected]
Tina Suarez-Murias [email protected]
Fred Roach [email protected]
Dennis Schwer [email protected]
Sunil Varma [email protected]
Jeff Yockey [email protected]

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