WPC pQXnaoQon$ O*/vO㽞: lo1f~јy.b%fd= (L0E&@"QH6Ӫ,>y+DA &^x܏4UǪ_)EGTm'݂mfN"Yߤ~8L=o;|&us&UϦm!_/I&oĦj_WbMzUL>~ 0/ 0 !U*  0<6r 1U U ,[ U6 U@ 1U R 0b #! UN %_ Ne 1ug ^ 0 w 4  m T \  `&Times New Roman6|o4Heading 1XXXS\  `&Times New RomanS   S\  `&Times New RomanSXXX6kr4Heading 2?%2A`Arial?    XXXS\  `&Times New RomanS %2A`Arial<:Default Para'    0 .  ,MTF Meeting notes$359=AEIMQ1 o o o(\ Y`Symbol<6X9`(Courier NewK2A`(Arial Unicode MS$359=AEIMQ2oo o o#|x(f $  XXXXXXXX0&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularX3#37=CIQYag1.a.i.(1)(a)(i)1)a),(3$  !  XXXXXXXX  J+:i+00U J )  XXXXXXXX  _ @  @ &a,%XXMarch1819,2002,MarketTradingForumMeetingSummary%!%!%!(#Page  1   !  XXXXXXXX  _H    2.XXô2.       x 62_MTF_ԀMeetingnotesU =Ԍ x ЌX8XôXXXX8   622.XXô2.     t  ' 62March1819,2002FiestaInninTempe,AZt Ԍ  ЌX8XôXXXX8   62XXXXXXXX      Participantsg OԌ  H Ќ XXXXXXXX  IraDomsky,AZ  B ColleenDelaney,UTLee_Gribovicz_,WYWayne_Leipold_,PhelpsDodgeDanClark,WY(CommunicationsCommitteeLiaison)Bruce_Polkowsky_,_NPS_PatCummins,_WGA_FredRoach,LosAlamosNationalLaboratory(EconomicAnalysisForum)Bob_Gruenig_Ԁ(_NTEC_)JeffBlend!Montana(EconomicAnalysisForum)LilyWong,EPARegion9SteveFrey,EPARegion9Don_Arkell_,_WESTAR_Reuben_Plantico_,representing_PacifiCorp_C.V._Mathai_,PinnacleWest/_APS_LeeAlter StatusofAnnex_NPRM_   TheproposedapprovaloftheAnnexisworkingitswaythrough_EPA_,buthasnotyetbeensigned.Whentheproposalissignedbythe_Administrator_ԀitwillbepostedonEPAswebsite.TheproposalwillbepublishedintheFRacoupleofweeksafterthat.Thepublichearingschedulemaybeaffectedifitisdelayed._MTF_ԀdiscussedscheduleandencouragedEPAtoschedulethehearingssothatthereisadequatetimeforreviewbeforethehearingisheld.The_MTF_Ԁwillneedtoreviewtheproposal,andpreparedraftcommentsforconsiderationbytheWRAPBoard.An_MTF_ԀcallwillbesetupaboutaweekaftertheruleispostedtodiscusstheproposalwithTimSmithfromEPA.Duringthecallthe_MTF_Ԁwillsetupasubgrouptostartdraftingcommentsforreviewbythefull_MTF_.The_MTF_Ԁwillworkwithstakeholderstodevelopcoordinatedcommentsratherthansendingseparatecomments,ifpossible.XXXXXXXX    v   VisibilityModelingtoSupporttheAnnexv   Ԍ 8)$# Ќ XXXXXXXX  TheWRAPmeetingthatwasoriginallyscheduledforJunehasbeendelayedandwillprobablyberescheduledneartheendofAugust.TheTOCisplanningtotakeadvantageofthisextratimeandhasdelayedthetechnicalworkshopthatwasoriginallyscheduledforMayuntilJuly9thand10th.This  -p(' createsaschedulingproblemforthe_MTF_Ԁbecausematerialsforthe308/309decisionareneededonafaster_timeframe_. /d*) ЇThe_MTF_ԀdecidedtoholdaworkshopinSaltLakeCityonMay21stand22nd.Planfor2fulldaysfor  thisworkshop.Thisworkshopwillbedesignedtorolloutthematerialforthe308/309decision,includingthevisibilitymodelingforotherClassIareas,criticalmass,allocations,and_WESTAR_attributionguidelines.Thetimingwillalsobeverygoodforpreparingcommentson_EPAs_ԀproposedapprovaloftheAnnexbecausethisshouldbeinthemiddleofthecommentperiod.VisibilitymodelingtoevaluatereasonableprogressascomparedtoRHBARTforthenon_GCVTC_ClassIareaswillbecompletedbythebeginningofMay.Themodelingwillbedoneusing_CMAQ_.Themodelingwillfollowthesameapproachthatwasusedforthe16_GCVTC_ԀClassIareas.Thisrequires4modelingruns.The4thrun(commandandcontrol)willbealowerprioritybecauseitis z   primarilyneededtoshowthatthereisarangeofresults.ColleenandIrawillsendthemodelingforumcochairsacopyofthetablethatwasusedinthedemonstrationforthe16ClassIareassothattheyknowwhatformatwewillneedforresults.Thetablewillincludevisibilityforthe20%bestandworstdays,andtheannualaverage.ResultsareneededforallClassIareas,eventhoseoutsideofthe9stateregion.Whenthemodelingiscompleted,ifitcanbeshownthattheAnnexachievesgreaterreasonableprogressthanBARTforotherClassIareas,theGreaterReasonableProgressthanBARTdemonstrationintheAnnexwillberedraftedtoincludetheotherClassIareas.ThisreportwillbebroughttotheWRAPforapprovalinAugust,andwillbesubmittedaspartofthe_SIPs_Ԁand_TIPs_.Theregionalhazeruledoesnotrequire_submittal_Ԁofthisinformationuntil2008,butstatesandtribescouldincludethedemonstrationwiththeir2003_SIPs_/_TIPs_.Thereisnotamechanismfor_EPA_Ԁtoapprovethisdemonstrationnow,butifthesameproceduresthatwereusedfortheAnnexwerefollowed,itmakessensethattheanalysisforotherClassIareascouldbeapproved.Wecanask_EPA_Ԁforearlyreviewandcommentonthetechnicalworkthatunderliesthedata.Theotherpointswillbepolicydecisionsuntilthe_SIPs_Ԁareapproved.̀IfthemodelingdoesntshowgreaterreasonableprogressthanBART,thenthe_MTF_ԀwillstillneedtobringareporttotheWRAPsothattheinformationisavailable.̀WewillneedtohavesomeonefromtheRegionalModelingCenteravailableattheMaymeetingtoanswerquestionsaboutthemodeling.ColleenandIrawillcoordinatethiswiththemodelingforum.XXXXXXXX      MonitoringProtocols.l TԌ #@  Ќ XXXXXXXX  WayneandSteveputtogethera_workplan_Ԁtoaddresstheseissues.This_workplan_Ԁispostedonthe_MTF_Ԁsite.Theinitialfocuswillbeonthebiggersourcecategories  Refineries  Smelters  CementandLime  GasPlants  +'( Wayne_Leipold_Ԁhasbeensortingdatafromthe1996inventory.Hewilllookfornaturalcutoffsfor sourcesizethatmaybeusefultoestablishdifferentmonitoringcriteria.WaynewillsendatabletoIraandColleentopostonthewebsite.Theworkgroupwilldevelopaplanforindustrialboilersandothermajorcategoriesthatcomeoutofthesort.Asubgroupwillworkonaconcepttoallowlessstringentmonitoringforsmallsourcesthatarenotchangingorsellingcredits.Thesourcewouldneedtodosomethingmorestringentinordertosellcreditsintotheprogram.  Bruce_Polkowsky_  ColleenDelaney  SteveFrey  PossiblysomeonefromAZXXXXXXXX    "  ModelRuleand_MOU_Ԁ" # #Ԍ b  Ќ XXXXXXXX  AdraftmodelrulewassubmittedwiththeAnnex.Thisneedstobereviewedbythestatesandtribestomakesurethatitwillintegrateintotheir_SIPs_/_TIPs_.Thereisalsoaneedtobringagenciesuptospeedregardingtradingterminologyandconcepts.Thedraft_MOU_Ԁalsoneedsreview,andtherearestillanumberofpolicyissuesthatwillneedtobeaddressedtoensurethattheregionalagreementwillwork.The_MTF_Ԁdiscussedhowtocompletethisreview,andrecommendedsendingthisissuetotheAirManagerscommittee.ThepolicyanalystthattheWRAPishiringwouldbeagoodassetheretokeepthebroadregionalperspectiveasthestatesandtribesgetintothedetailsoftherule.Aworkshopformatwouldworkwell!thebesttimewouldbearoundAugust.The_WESTAR_ԀworkontheSIP/TIPtemplatewasveryeffectiveandincludedbroaderparticipationthanjustthestates.Asimilarprocessmayworkforthereviewofthemodelruleand_MOU_.TheworkshopcouldincludetradingexpertsfromEPAandotherstates,andcouldalsoincludesomeonefromOTCoranotherregionalorganizationthathasdevelopedatradingprogram.ColleenandIrawillcoordinatewithDon_Arkell_ԀandBob_Gruenig_ԀtobringthisissuetotheAirManagersCommittee.Inaddition,LilyWongdistributedapreliminaryreviewofgapsremaininginthemodelrule.Theyincludealistofproceduresandguidancedocumentsthatneedtobedeveloped,updatestomaketheruleconsistentwiththesupplementalAnnexmaterialssubmittedto_EPA_,otherissuesthatareassociatedwith,butnotcontainedin,themodelrule.XXXXXXXX    m+  Year2000EmissionInventorym++ +Ԍ *&' Ќ XXXXXXXX  TheEmissionsForumhascompletedthisinventory(_Pechan_Ԁwasthecontractor).Year2000emissions +'( weregatheredforallstatesexceptCalifornia.Californiasemissionswereestimatedfrom1999 , () (38,000tonsofSO2fromCAin2000).Therewasa27%reductionfrom1990.ThisEasilybeatsthe13%reductionrequirementintherule.LilyWongandSteveFreywillposetwoquestionstotheircolleaguesat_EPA_.IsitacceptabletoestimateCaliforniasemissionsbasedonthe1999inventory?Eveniftheestimateisoffby50%,itwillonlyaffectthereductionsby3%.Isthereportpreparedby_Pechan_Ԁsufficientdocumentationforstate_SIPs_?ColleenDelaneywillpostthedraftyear2000reportonthe_MTF_Ԁwebpage.Iftherearenotanycomments,thenthereportwillbefinalizedin2weeks.2.XXô2.     0  6 n  62Tuesday,March19,200200 0Ԍ 6  ЌX8XôXXXX8   62XXXXXXXX    2  CriticalMass2j2 R2Ԍ   Ќ XXXXXXXX  Juanita_Haydel_Ԁand_Bishal_Ԁ_Thapa_Ԁfrom_ICF_Ԁpresenteddraftresultsofthecriticalmassstudy.Theirpresentationhasbeenpostedonthe_MTF_Ԁwebpageundertheworkingdocumentssection.ModelDescription/LimitationsC  $3C X<(4 4 <DL!X<  XXXX2 3    XXX XLimitedanalysis!resultsneedtobeviewedincontext;i.e.comparisonofscenarios k <(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2 3    XXX XResultsarenoteasilyunderstoodandfurtherworkisneededtotranslateandpresenttheresults e <(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2 3    XXX XReliedonsameassumptionsasprioranalysis _ <(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2 3    XXX XOnlysourcecompliancecostsweretakenintoconsideration!notincomeorsecondary Y economicimpacts<(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2 3    XXX XCommandandcontrolassumedforallstates/tribesnotparticipating M <(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2 3    XXX XReliedonsameassumptionsasprioranalysis G   ,X?+ 4 <DL!44X?DraftConclusions X,?(4 4 <DL!4X?  XXXX2 3    XXX XRegionalcostsprimarilyaffected:2.XX 5!  X9% <DL!44X9XX2. XXXX2o3   ` XXX XByrelativeprogramstringencyforstatesandtribesremaininginprogram /" 9% <DL!  X9 XXXX2o3   ` XXX XCostofproducingpowerforCA )#y  X<(4 4 <DL!  X< XXXX2 3    XXX XBiggestimpactsonCAandWY #$s <(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2 3    XXX XWithoutWY,greatercostsforscrubbing,morefuelswitchingandnewnaturalgas %m  <(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2  3    XXX XTribalallocationsareanimportantsourceofcreditsfortrading &g!! <(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2  3    XXX XNM,UTandORareprimarypurchasersofcreditsunderallscenarios 'a"" <(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2  3    XXX XAZ,COandWYarenotasdependentoninterstatetrading;i.e.intrastatemarketswouldbe  ([## functional  X?+ 4 <DL!44X? X8XXXB  ԍ̎C  XXX X8The_MTF_ԀscheduledaconferencecallforMarch26,2002todiscussthedraftresultsandtosetupa *=&& subgrouptoworkwith_ICF_Ԁtoputtheresultsintothebroadercontextofthepreviouseconomicmodelingandotherissuessuchasbenefits. ,1(( XXXXXXXX    \F  Allocations\FF FԌ  Ќ XXXXXXXX  Duane_Yantorno_Ԁreportedontheprogressofthenonutilityallocationsproject.Theworkgroupselected_Pechan_Ԁasthecontractor.Regularconferencecallswillbesetuptoreviewprogress.AdraftreportshouldbeavailableforreviewaroundthebeginningofMay.Duanewillsendacopyofthefinal_workplan_ԀtoColleenDelaneysothatitcanbepostedonthewebpage.The_MTF_Ԁdiscussedtheneedforclosecoordinationbetweenutilitiesandnonutilities.AssoonasdraftresultsareavailabletheywillneedtobegiventoDavidSteelesothattheutilityallocationestimatescanbefinalized.DuanewillworkwithDavidtomakesurethat_Pechan_Ԁwillprovidetheresultsintheformatthatwillbeneededfortheutilityspreadsheet.Theutilityandnonutilitypieceswillthenbecombined,andacompletereportofestimatedallocationswillbepresentedattheMaymeeting.Thisisaverytight_timeframe_,andsoupfrontcoordinationwillbeneeded.XXXXXXXX    L  TribalCriticalMassLmL ULԌ P Ќ XXXXXXXX  The_MTF_Ԁdiscussedthetimingandrecommendedapproachforcommunicationwithtribes,especiallythe4tribesthathavemajorSO2sources.Tribesdonothavethesamedeadlines,butwillbeaffectedbywhatthestatesaredevelopingfortheir_SIPs_Ԁin2003._NTEC_ԀisworkingwithEPAonaconsultationprocesswithtribes: X1.Letterstotribesandenvironmentalmanagers2.Outreachtotribeswithmajorsources3.Independentpublicmeetingsandalsotieintoexistingmeetingssuchas_NTEC_. XBob_Gruenig_Ԁwilldiscuss_MTF_Ԁtimingandoutreachquestionswiththetribalcaucus.Therearesomeelementsregardingtribalparticipationthatmayneedtobeaddressedintheshortterm,suchashowthetribalsetasidewillbeavailableforuseinthemarketpriortothedevelopmentof_TIPs_.Also,theremaybe_MOU_Ԁissues.The_MTF_Ԁwilllookto_NTEC_Ԁandthetribalcaucustoprovideadviceabouttimingandthebestwaytobringtheseissuestothetribes.XXXXXXXX    GR  OtherTechnicalWorkGRR RԌ $: ! Ќ XXXXXXXX  Thebasecase2018inventoryhasbeencompleted.ColleenDelaneywilladdalinktothisreporttothe_MTF_Ԁwebpage.Asdiscussedatthelast_MTF_Ԁmeeting,thesmelterandutilityinventorieswerebasedonthe_MTF_sworkintheAnnex.Theotherpointsourceprojectionsweremodifiedtoincludeupdatedinformationregardingretirementratesandnewsourcecontrols.  +'( XXXXXXXX    YU  ReasonableAttribution!_WESTAR_ԀworkYUU UԌ  Ќ XXXXXXXX  ColleenDelaneyandBruce_Polkowsky_Ԁprovidedanoverviewofthereasonableattributionguidelinereportthat_WESTAR_Ԁisdrafting.Theyhandedoutthedrafttechnicalandprocesscriteriathathavebeenpreparedforthereport!theremainingsectionsareunderdiscussion.Thereportwillincludethefollowingelements:C $$C- - X<(4 4 <DL!X<  XXXX2o3    XXX X_Overview_Ԁofthecertificationprocessandtheremedyprocess(BARTanalysis).Attributionwill   beoccurringinthecontextofaRHSIP.IfacasebycaseanalysisisdoneforRH,attributionwillbecomeanimplicitissue.ItisprimarilyanissueinthecontextofatradingprograminlieuofRHBART.<(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2o3    XXX XTechnicalandprocessreviewcriteria h  <(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2o3    XXX XDescriptionofthestandardreviewprocess,startingwithadetailedreviewofthecertification b  <(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2o3    XXX XTool_box_Ԁofmodelsandothertechniquesthatcanbeusedtodetermineattribution.A \  combinationoftechniquesisthebestapproach<(4 4 <DL!44X< XXXX2o3    XXX X5scenariosthatwillshowhowthecircumstancesofthecertificationwillaffectthetypeand P levelofreviewthatwillbeneededtodetermineifimpairmentisreasonablyattributable  X?+ 4 <DL!44X?_WESTAR_Ԁiscompilingthedraftreportandwillsendittothe_MTF_Ԁforreviewbeforeitisfinalized.CV_Mathai_ԀandReuben_Plantico_ԀwillprovideanoverviewofthispresentationtoWESTandwillgetinitialfeedback.