WPC W6qzۨҲ+4 J'P~}Ϋm=WX 7|έ5w$dZ#rHF0oCR3&Dƞ6  Dł ت4xG$:zy>O7ևI0bg"XMEbEZ*? AC.En4 :T`nۧ;vdHx{n!jZmd@-,%cVMoD4oMa{ؿ$Ъjy PNM &-#ԒرsBJ|:uLSA{[ܣr6zZ!W䟳bܧ(LF$ʌcugzV۵s[HLP>GֈĂ<abB-:ɩͬMDmb1=Evzg3Khzv5@f¼n|.Hp>أ1B>`A c# 06 0 0 0b 0) 0 0 0 0/ 0 0Q 0 0S 0 0 0h 0W 0 0  0) 0<H 0N 0a 03 0 !U! 0!Ux#E#U# 0J#UK$ 0Y % 0e& 0w'Uf( 0~(U) 0L) 0* 0~+ 09, 0-f. 0X. 0 0 01 0W2 0 f3Ur4 0_4 05b8e8 08 0l: 03|; 0P< 0Y= 1X? 1? 1@ KA 0<ZAAnA BGWJ#!tJ %K 1K 0f"LUoTLNL^ Lw@L4*M>M m@M WM&=X CcX 1u}X 0.cX 1UYfY 0Y_Z 0%[ D-[[ 0E\ AY\n8]N]a] 0C] 0>^ AQ^n_fgfga\gf!ha#ha\7hh Bmj D3j B j 0 wj BTkNqkNskauk 0k AS lN]la\_llNlflNlalflU:l Bma6mfJmaLmN`mbmNjm 0NlmnmkvNkwa\mw ikw D54x ix 1xx 72yGyybzU4zf {f {a\ {i{nP|NU:f=a? AS 0KN@Jo-M?z@JZo-?ѰѰѰѰѰѰѰѰѰѰѰѰ B* 0A۱ 0T 0hp زNnnNUUFWa\ffafl= g:Technical[5]Technical Document Style..   2(1)3  Ԁ. l= :Technical[6]Technical Document Style..   2(a)3  Ԁ. l:%:Technical[2]Technical Document Style   2A.3  Ԁ   .. l7!:Technical[3]Technical Document Style   21.3  Ԁ   .. l6! ):Technical[4]Technical Document Style   2a.3  Ԁ   .. lE0 D:Technical[1]Technical Document Style    2I.3  Ԁ     .. l<a~:Technical[7]Technical Document Style..   2i)3  Ԁ. l<a:Technical[8]Technical Document Style..   2a)3  Ԁ. V1 8Document[8]Document Style0..8` ..`    V$8Document[4]Document Style..   .  V 8Document[6]Document Style8..  .V 8Document[5]Document Style0..  .V:8Document[2]Document Style   2A.3  Ԁ   V1 8Document[7]Document Style0..0` ..`   Ԁ z` :Right Par[1]Right-Aligned Paragraph Numbers..  2I.3  Ԁ..0..zs B:Right Par[2]Right-Aligned Paragraph Numbers..` ..  2A.3  Ԁ..0` ..` VJ8Document[3]Document Style..   21.3  Ԁ   z :Right Par[3]Right-Aligned Paragraph Numbers..` ..`  ..P   21.3  Ԁ` ..` 0 .. z &:Right Par[4]Right-Aligned Paragraph Numbers..` ..`  .. ..   2a.3  Ԁ .. 0..z {j:Right Par[5]Right-Aligned Paragraph Numbers..` ..`  .. ..h..  2(1)3  Ԁ..0h..hz Ĵ:Right Par[6]Right-Aligned Paragraph Numbers..` ..`  .. ..h..h..  2(a)3  Ԁh..h0..z :Right Par[7]Right-Aligned Paragraph Numbers..` ..`  .. ..h..h....  2i)3  Ԁ..0..z :Right Par[8]Right-Aligned Paragraph Numbers..` ..`  .. ..h..h....p..  2a)3  Ԁ..0p..pVc08Document[1]Document Style  @..^    2I.3  Ԁ     Ԉ dWt.ReportEHPA-Pechan formal reports  K7 (08@XK `a :Tab/Fig/RefsEHPA-Formats Tables & Figs & Refs headings   -%2`-     6C' xd6    &&&-+`- %2`+`nQ2ContentsEHPA-Formats Contents heading     - 22-6C' xd6&&&- `-  22_F:Table Title EHPA-Suppresses headers/footers & changes font  XXX- 22- 1 1  XXX- 22-v2FootnoteFootnote for reports (schoolbook)VL (08@HPX!"V-+`-LYF .Run-InRun-In Heading..-$"Du-.-$"Du-"DuII :Helv. Bold 1EHPA-Changes font to Helv. Bold 12XXX-&02`- XXX-&02`- 02`~f"F:2nd tier (1)EHPA-Heading for 2nd-tier sectionXXX- 22-..   ..XXX- 22-`* .BulletEHPA-Bullet (Schoolbook)0.."0..|FF6Table TextEHPA-Formats text in Pechan tables-&02`-&&&- `-~S"F:1st tier (A)EHPA-Heading for 1st-tier sectionXXX- 22-   ..XXX- 22-^`F.SourceEHPA-Sources for tables-&02`-SOURCE:0..-&02`-|~F:4th tier (i)EHPA-Heading for 4th-tier sectionXXX- 22-.... .. ..XXX- 22-^HQ8ChapterheadEHPA-Chapter title      6C' xd6   - 22-   6C' xd6     - 22-l* 8Bullet ListEHPA-Indented Bullet List0..0..j_F,NotesEHPA-Formats notes below table-&02`-NOTES:0..-&02`-.ResumeEHPA-Pechan staff resume format 09/03/91   -2'\ `-;1P 0 pP0;  '\ `~y"F:3rd tier (a)EHPA-Heading for 3rd-tier sectionXXX- 22-....   ..XXX- 22-jN.LetterEHPA-Pechan letterhead letter#d#   5      A7X`hp x  pA&&&- `-      ..h..h..p ..p  .. x ..x  .. ...... .. ..p..p  "US ,  6 !  Page EQ:Appendix CovEHPA-Formats text for appendix cover sheet  6C' xd6   - 22-   6C' xd6     - 22-l^F *NoteEHPA-For single note below table-%2`-NOTE:0..-%2`-dI 0SourcesEHPA-Formats references at bottom of table-%2`- SOURCES:0 .. -%2`- _F8Table TitleEHPA-Formats table titles in Pechan reports  XXX- 22- 1 1  XXX- 22-dQ 6ReferencesEHPA-Pechan references  &&&- `-0....&  ..'    &&&- `-   A_ekqwDocumentDocument StyleI.A.1.a.(1)(a)i)a) CRight ParRight-Aligned Paragraph NumbersI.A.1.a.(1)(a)i)a) Cu{TechnicalTechnical Document StyleI.A.1.a.(1)(a)i)a)@1($0 #|x `&&U PyQ&P%2`  v2PkQ P+`&o P'C&P22 2p}wC 22X:x2p}wCX+`e P['CP"DuPDupQ02`X:s2PkCXP02``2PkCP02`|M2PkCP%2`J2PkQP'\ ` a\  PC P%2`;2PkQP dHP LaserJet 4M Plus,,,,,,0H%(5hCEKQW]cioAutoList11.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.(>8$HX?XXXH&W%X X?.)Z<Century Schoolbook Regular\)  E6E7EDV(z  U RICEs NSCR SCR LEC SCCs EGU tpd FIPSHibbardOAQPSregionwiderulemakingVatavuk CRFDivitaLyckan E.H.NeufferCogeneration MTFGCVTCsubmittals tpyLathaToopal DEQ xlsStollAGRIUMCrippsLeskysWunkerAalbersLeBaronGriboviczSierritaKennecottASARCONAPAPscc_idinpereblowdowninoiboscc_ids*emissiontbl_rev.xls.oregoncorrections.xlsAbitibi WGA EMpy EMby RTpy NWCT GFpyEMex,pyEMnw,py RBLC USGSEdelsteinAsarco AmaxCaridad RCsMcMoran MIMAlgomTinto LMECoahuila DFICHEMSTAR ARCO CQCCALAVERASCELITE EISBITTERWATER STNBENICIAPERMANENTEINDUST RMCMADERAHARDBRD DIV LBRMISTUBISHIBROCKWAYBAAQMD PPG INDRHODIA AQMDEXPLOREQUILON LLCTOSCOULTRAMARGR COLOHOLNAMASHGROVEINEEL FMCASTARISSIMPLOTTASCOYATES PLNTMALJAMARBrockway PSDWellman QBOPHolnamSHUTEWORLANDINTERENERGYHILANDWILDHORSERESOUCESAINSWORTHSWEETWATER SRUIntermountainCOALINGADAIRYMANSGAYLORD FDS IONELIBBEY ARDO AERAPOWERINE RAGUKERNRIDGESOUTHDOWNVICTORVILLESWEPIMOLYCORPADMINISTRATIO MTN RDGFEAGAN PLTHOLLOMANEnron GatxPeterkort LDSMagcorpLOVELLReinjectGlenbrook JWAguilar d##37=CIQYag1.a.i.(1)(a)(i)1)a)(;3$2#  0  .3  0   EhCEKQW]cioAutoList21.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.(Y3]$ G8!H%&%%H%H&&%%H%&  ݃ Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5(Z3$ G8!H%&%%H%H&&%%H%&  )!dxdx Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5($ (    ) ZX[YM << deUU+`4New Century Schoolbook&o P['C&PTABLE C($     (Y2]$ G8!H%&%%H%H&&%%H%&  WaX`YC<< c+`4New Century Schoolbook&o P['C&P%2`Century Schoolbook  v2PkQ P22AArialBoldTToolbook 2p}wC 22AArialBoldTToolbookX:x2p}wCX+`lBoldTToolbooke P['CP"DulBoldTToolbookPDupQ02`lBoldTToolbookX:s2PkCXP02`lBoldTToolbook`2PkCP02A`ArialTT Schoolbook|M2PkCP%2`lTT SchoolbookJ2PkQP'\ `lTTTToolbook a\  PC P%2A`ArialTTTToolbook;2PkQP%2`lTTTToolbook;2PkQP \Table_A!PRINT_AREA '<PRINT RANGE> TABLE D\Table_A!PRINT_AREA '<PRINT RANGE>  EMISSION.XLS MTFLatimerLathaToopal DEQ xlsStoldCrippsLeskysWunkerAulbersLeBaronGribovicz BACT LAER RBLCcogeneration SOxStollAalbersKennecottAsarcoMorenci tpyAGRIUM dkkkk'dxdd@ (O;$0  2#  a  .3  0` (#(#( (dTABLE A(Y2]$ G8!H%&%%H%H&&%%H%&  XM -, dc\Table_A!PRINT_AREA'<PRINT RANGE> TABLE E-FAZ"Arial Regular  dTABLE FFTABLE G (O$ԫ+`4New Century Schoolbook&o P['C&P%2`Century Schoolbook  v2PkQ P22AArialBoldTToolbook 2p}wC 22AArialBoldTToolbookX:x2p}wCX+`lBoldTToolbooke P['CP"DulBoldTToolbookPDupQ02`lBoldTToolbookX:s2PkCXP02`lBoldTToolbook`2PkCP02A`ArialTT Schoolbook|M2PkCP%2`lTT SchoolbookJ2PkQP'\ `lTTTToolbook a\  PC P%2A`ArialTTTToolbook;2PkQP%2`lTTTToolbook;2PkQP V6c(H%u%%H%H&u%%H%u  _bWGCz|X   p  @ H@EX   X  \Table_A!PRINT_AREA'<PRINT RANGE> CCCCU ReportAb8  Q CCCC)!dxdx@3(CEOYcmwAutoList3A-1 A-1 A-1 A-1 A-1 A-1 A-1 A-1 Ri) a6c"H%u%%H%H&u%%H%u  _@| | | A  2   s6c'H%u%%H%H&u%%H%u  _&.%%H&uX?/X.%&  TableA1(continued)  A- 0FAArial Bold\Table_A!PRINT_AREAY'<PRINT RANGE>Y s6c'H%u%%H%H&u%%H%u  _&.%%H&uX?/X.%&  TableA2(continued)  Ы+`4New Century Schoolbook&o P['C&P%2`Century Schoolbook  v2PkQ P22AArialBoldTToolbook 2p}wC 22AArialBoldTToolbookX:x2p}wCX+`lBoldTToolbooke P['CP"DulBoldTToolbookPDupQ02`lBoldTToolbookX:s2PkCXP02`lBoldTToolbook`2PkCP02A`ArialTT Schoolbook|M2PkCP%2`lTT SchoolbookJ2PkQP'\ `lTTTToolbook a\  PC P%2A`ArialTTTToolbook;2PkQP%2`lTTTToolbook;2PkQP+ AZ"Arial RegularTable_AXY I&mage <=8C HKKKKLevel 1Level 2Level 3Level 4Level 5( $ Figure  1  K:\PROJECTS\9406_001\FIGIII-1.WMFWPC@@zz!zƚz@S  <&z &&#TNPP0D v & TNPP &&TNPP   z - "-- !-- "-&C& - & & --D-- "Arial- .2 | Figure III-1;;;%5 5. .<2 >#Emission Projection Methods Diagram@U55;;@%;55 ;;P5 ;;;5E5;%5U.- "-qQ -- Times New Roman- .2 rP 1990 GCVTC@@@@ \U\NU. .2  Inventory+@@9@$@+@.- "-q p--  .2 Link SON$@@ G\.Times New RomanHc- . 2 O2,.Times New Roman- .2 { emissions 9d$22$@@2. .2 rM by SCC with@@ GUU \$$@. .2  IAS cells+\G 99$$2. .2 (Region, scc_id)+U9@$@@ 299@$@+.- "-q --  .$2 >j IAS cells determine+\G 99$$2 @9$9+d$@9. .!2  1. Growth Factors@ \+@\$@ G99$@+2. .$2 rl 2. Retirement Rates@ U9$$+9d9@$ U9$92. .(2  3. New versus Existing@ \9\ @9+2@2 N@$2$$@@. .2 j Source SOG@@+99 G\.Times New RomanHc- . 2  2,.Times New Roman- .2   Control U@@$+@$. .2 @ LevelsN9@9$2.&Kv "--%Pp--&&   "--%  --&- "-Q --  .2  1998 Facility@@@@ G99$$$$@. .2  Level SON9@9$ G\.Times New RomanHc- . 2 ? 2,.Times New Roman- .2  EmissionsNd$22$@@2.- "-  --  .2 Allocate to SCCs\$$@99$9 $@ GUU2. .2 a using SO@2$@@ G\.Times New RomanHc- . 2 : 2,.Times New Roman- .2 f emission 9d$22$@@. .2  proportions from@+@@@+$$@@2 ++@d. .2 y the 1990$@9 @@@@. .2 Sv GCVTC Inventory\U\NU +@@9@$@+@.&K  "--%P --&--"Systemn-&TNPP &@DK:\PROJECTS\9406_001\FIGIII-1.WMFK:\PROJECTS\9406_001\figiii-1.wmf˻ST4+tr<<J l]&OutD K:\PROJECTS\9406_001\FIGIII-1.WMFWPC@@zz!zƚz@S  <&z &&#TNPP0D ve & TNPP &&TNPP   z - "-- !-- "-&C& - & & --D-- "Arial- .2 + Figure III-1N$NN2G$$$$+G. .<2 ]#Emission Projection Methods DiagramUr$GG$NN$U2N$GG+$NN$kG+NNNG$\$GN2Gr.- "-qQ -- Times New Roman4- .2 rP 1990 GCVTC@@@@ \U\NU. .2  Inventory+@@9@$@+@.- "-q p--  .2 Link SON$@@ G\.Times New Roman- . 2 O2,.Times New Roman4- .2 { emissions 9d$22$@@2. .2 rM by SCC with@@ GUU \$$@. .2  IAS cells+\G 99$$2. .2 (Region, scc_id)+U9@$@@ 299@$@+.- "-q --  .$2 >j IAS cells determine+\G 99$$2 @9$9+d$@9. .!2  1. Growth Factors@ \+@\$@ G99$@+2. .$2 rl 2. Retirement Rates@ U9$$+9d9@$ U9$92. .(2  3. New versus Existing@ \9\ @9+2@2 N@$2$$@@. .2 j Source SOG@@+99 G\.Times New Roman- . 2  2,.Times New Roman4- .2   Control U@@$+@$. .2 @ LevelsN9@9$2.&Kv "--%Pp--&&   "--%  --&- "-Q --  .2  1998 Facility@@@@ G99$$$$@. .2  Level SON9@9$ G\.Times New Roman- . 2 ? 2,.Times New Roman4- .2  EmissionsNd$22$@@2.- "-  --  .2 Allocate to SCCs\$$@99$9 $@ GUU2. .2 a using SO@2$@@ G\.Times New Roman- . 2 : 2,.Times New Roman4- .2 f emission 9d$22$@@. .2  proportions from@+@@@+$$@@2 ++@d. .2 y the 1990$@9 @@@@. .2 Sv GCVTC Inventory\U\NU +@@9@$@+@.&K  "--%P --&--"Systemn-&TNPP &@DK:\PROJECTS\9406_001\FIGIII-1.WMFK:\PROJECTS\9406_001\figiii-1.wmf㗃ST4 t<<J S]&OtGG &0 d d(Vm$0   (,!$0  0` (#(#  (@$0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (# `  +`4New Century Schoolbook&o P['C&P%2`Century Schoolbook  v2PkQ P22AArialBoldTToolbook 2p}wC 22AArialBoldTToolbookX:x2p}wCX+`lBoldTToolbooke P['CP"DulBoldTToolbookPDupQ02`lBoldTToolbookX:s2PkCXP02`lBoldTToolbook`2PkCP02A`ArialTT Schoolbook|M2PkCP%2`lTT SchoolbookJ2PkQP'\ `lTTTToolbook a\  PC P%2A`ArialTTTToolbook;2PkQP%2`lTTTToolbook;2PkQP+`4New Century Schoolbook&o P['C&P%2`Century Schoolbook  v2PkQ P22AArialBoldTToolbook 2p}wC 22AArialBoldTToolbookX:x2p}wCX+`lBoldTToolbooke P['CP"DulBoldTToolbookPDupQ02`lBoldTToolbookX:s2PkCXP02`lBoldTToolbook`2PkCP02A`ArialTT Schoolbook|M2PkCP%2`lTT SchoolbookJ2PkQP'\ `lTTTToolbook a\  PC P%2A`ArialTTTToolbook;2PkQP%2`lTTTToolbook;2PkQP/ Z.Benguiat Bk BT Book\Table_A!PRINT_AREA'<PRINT RANGE>TABLE B G8!H%&%%H%H&&%%H%&  _X t  K7 (08@XK    (< T$T$(33 t  K7 (08@K  HL%H&&_HL E.H.Pechan&Associates,Inc.  X  5528BHempsteadWaySpringfield,VA221517038136700telephone7038136729facsimile3622LyckanParkwaySuite2002Durham,NC277079194933144telephone9194933182facsimileP.O.Box1575ShingleSprings,CA956825306720441telephone&facsimile F&!( #&%#%& HistoricandFutureSO2 5+ EmissionsAnalysis9StateWesternRegion G - DraftReport  k/  #&%#H&&%%&HL%H&&Preparedfor: :< WesternGovernorsAssociation1515ClevelandPlace,Suite200Denver,CO80202Preparedby:E.H.Pechan&Associates,Inc.5528BHempsteadWaySpringfield,VA22151July28,2000PechanRpt.No.00.07.001/9406.001#H&&%HL# f,'N (< (  4-(N 33   8u&%d&&d8  H R>!%H&u  )6!!H R>  CONTENTSG  ?C' xdE3x? 4    & %! )6H&u%% &       Page  c       TABLES""I(#.iv  o ACRONYMSANDABBREVIATIONS""J(#.\\$v  +  CHAPTERI INTRODUCTION""J(#. 1 u  CHAPTERII HISTORICSO2EMISSIONSANALYSIS""J(#.VV)3 _  z  z 0  0(#(#    A.0(#(#RACT/_BACT_/_LAER_ԀCLEARINGHOUSE#""J(#.,(#(##4z ݌ = Ќ  z  z 0  0(#(#    B.0(#(#SMELTERS#""J(#. (#(##4z  ݌  Ќ  z  z 0  0(#(#    C.0(#(#NONSMELTERS#""J(#. (#(##7z ݌  Ќ  z  z 0  0(#(#    D.0(#(#FACILITYLEVELDATA#\"\"I(#.$$#(#(##10z ݌  Ќ  CHAPTERIII SO2EMISSIONPROJECTIONS\"\"I(#."11 !q z  z0  0(#(#    A.0(#(#PROJECTIONMETHODS#\"\"I(#."(#(##11z:݌ O Ќ  z  z 0  0(#(#    B.0(#(#PROJECTIONRESULTS#\"\"I(#.(("(#(##13z &݌ - Ќ  z  z0  0(#(#    C.0(#(#ALTERNATEPROJECTIONINFORMATION#\"\"I(#.0(#(##19z݌   Ќ    0  0(#(#0 (#(#    1.0  (# (#CopperSmelters#\"\"I(#." (# (##19 ݌  Ќ    0  0(#(#0 (#(#    2.0  (# (#PetroleumRefining#\"\"I(#.% (# (##20 ݌ w Ќ  CHAPTERIV RECOMMENDATIONS\"\"I(#. 25 a REFERENCES\"\"I(#. 27    APPENDIXA FACILITYLEVELSO2EMISSIONSDATA""H(#.22+A1 g##  s  E$$ H R>!%H&u hy!!H R>      TABLES G }  ?C' xdE3x? 4     &%! hyH&u%%&     Page      ?   II10  PointSourceDataContacts#""J(#.*(#(##5   II20  SmelterSO2EmissionsSummary#""J(#.-(#(##6 a  II30  StateLevelNonSmelterSO2EmissionsSummary#""J(#.ll=(#(##8 ?   II40  Reasonsfor1990to1998SO2EmissionsChanges#""J(#.>(#(##9 m  III10  CopperSmelterSO2EmissionProjections(tpy)#\"\"I(#.44=(#(##14 K  III20  NonSmelterSO2EmissionProjections(tpy)#\"\"I(#.>>:(#(##15 )  III30  NonSmelterSO2EmissionProjections(tpy)MTFSector#\"\"I(#.G(#(##16   III40  NonSmelterRegionalSO2EmissionProjectionsExistingversusNew (#(#     SourceComponents\"\"I(#.,,!17 s  III50  ExampleCalculationRefinerySource#\"\"I(#.~~5(#(##18 Q III60  CopperMarketInternationalFirms#\"\"I(#.3(#(##21 / III70  CopperPricesActualandProjected#\"\"I(#.4(#(##22  ] L (#RLA10  0(#(#FacilityLevelSO2EmissionsData100tpyorMoreSO2in19961998#""H(#.T(#(##A2 ; A20  0(#(#FacilitieswithLessThan100tpySO2in19961998#""H(#.B(#(##A6  A30  0(#(#OregonData#""H(#. (#(##A8      H R>!%H&u hy!!H R>      ACRONYMSANDABBREVIATIONS~G   ?C' xdE3x? 4     &%! hyH&u%%&     _BACT_0  0 (#(#BestAvailableControlTechnology  (# (# BART0  0 (#(#BestAvailableRetrofitTechnology  (# (# DOE0  0 (#(#U.S.DepartmentofEnergy  (# (# EIA0  0 (#(#EnergyInformationAdministrationa  (# (# EPA0  0 (#(#U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency?   (# (# GCVTC0  0 (#(#GrandCanyonVisibilityTransportCommissionm  (# (# IAS0  0 (#(#IntegratedAssessmentSystemK  (# (# _LAER_0  0 (#(#LowestAchievableEmissionRate)  (# (# MTF0  0 (#(#MarketTradingForum  (# (# NAPAP0  0 (#(#NationalAcidPrecipitationAssessmentProgram  (# (# RACT0  0 (#(#ReasonablyAvailableControlTechnologys  (# (# RBLC0  0 (#(#RACT/_BACT_/_LAER_ԀClearinghouseQ (# (# SCC0  0 (#(#SourceClassificationCode/ (# (# SIP0  0 (#(#StateImplementationPlan ] (# (# SO20  0 (#(#sulfurdioxide; (# (# TIP0  0 (#(#TribalImplementationPlan (# (# tpy0  0(#(#0 (#(#tonsperyear (# (# USGS0  0 (#(#U.S.GeologicalSurvey (# (# WGA0  0 (#(#WesternGovernorsAssociationc (# (# WRAP0  0 (#(#WesternRegionalAirPartnershipA (# (#    o    .      ?C' xdEx?  H R>!%H&u  )6!!H R>    CHAPTERI  INTRODUCTION.'G K(?C' xdEb x? c     & %! )6H&u%% &     The 3MarketTradingForum(MTF 3s))hasbeenworkingdiligentlytoadvancediscussions  F andreachconsensusontheregional 3sulfurdioxide(SO2 3*)emissionmilestonesandbasic  $  elementsofbackstopcapandtradeprogramdesignedtoassurethatregionalmilestonesareachieved.Thesecomponentsoftheregionalhazeprogramneedtobesubmittedtothe 3U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA 3>+)inOctober2000bythe 3WesternRegionalAirPartnership(WRAP 3+)intheformofanAnnextothe 3GrandCanyonVisibilityTransportCommission(GCVTC 3,)report,andwillformthebasisofregionalhazeand 3Stateandtribalimplementationplan(SIPandTIP 3,)submittalsbyStatesandtribeswishingtocomplywiththerequirementsoftheregionalhazerule.  AmajorityoftheMTF,inOctober1999,agreedtoaprovisional2018milestoneof540,000tonsofSO2acrosstheregionbasedonthebestinformationavailableatthattime,  andtheunderstandingthatthedataandtheemissionsprojectionswouldbereviewedandtruedup.However,thelatestestimatesofyear2000actualemissionshaveraisedconcernsamongsomestakeholdersbecausethe2000emissionsappeartobewellbelowpreviousexpectations.Thus,somestakeholdersnowbelievethattheoriginalmilestoneagreementnolongerrepresentsadequatefurtherreductionstomeettherequirementsoftheregionalhazeregulations.Otherstakeholdersmaintainthattheoriginalagreementissufficientinlightofearlyreductionsachievedintheregion,aswellastheforecastsandintentionsoftheGCVTC.Inaddition,EPAhasraisedconcernsaboutthe 3BestAvailableRetrofitTechnology(BART 30)emissionreductionestimatethatwasusedbytheMTFintheprovisional2018milestoneagreement.EPArecentlyprovidedanalternativeBARTrange.  Theanalysisprovidedinthisreportexaminesthehistoric(1990to1998)SO2 8 emissionsfromnonutilitypointsourcesinthewesternregion.ThestudyareaiscomprisedofthefollowingStates:Oregon,Idaho,Wyoming,California,Nevada,Utah,Colorado,Arizona,andNewMexico.Thehistoricemissionsanalysisfocusesonthreeyears:1990,1996,and1998.Aspartofthishistoricdataanalysis,allnonutilitypointsourceswithanSO2emissionschangeof250 3tonsperyear(tpy 33),ormore,between1990 >$$ and1998wereinvestigatedtodeterminetheprimaryreasonsforthisemissionschange.ThehistoricSO2emissionsanalysisispresentedinChapterIIofthisreport. %J!&   ThesecondpartoftheanalysisperformedforthisstudyisanSO2emissionsprojection. '#( Using1998asabaseline,SO2emissionprojectionsweremadeto2003,2008,2013,and (#) 2018.Theseemissionprojectionsweremadeusinggrowthfactors,retirementrates,andnewsourcecontrolfactorsfromtheGCVTC 3IntegratedAssessmentSystem(IAS 3T6).TheemissionsprojectionanalysisisdescribedinChapterIII.  RecommendationsforfuturestudyareprovidedinChapterIV.  -)/  .        ?C' xdEx?  H R>!%H&u  )6!!H R>    CHAPTERII  HISTORICSO2EMISSIONSANALYSIS.?7G 8 / ?C' xdEb x? c     & %! )6H&u%% &     Thischapterprovidesananalysisofthenonutilitypointsourceemissionsinthenine  F westernStatesduringtheperiod1990to1998.Thethreeprimaryyearsoffocusare1990,1996,and1998.ThewesternStateswhoseemissionswereevaluatedinthisstudyincludeArizona,California,Colorado,Idaho,Nevada,NewMexico,Oregon,Utah,andWyoming.  ThestartingpointfortheanalysesperformedforthisprojectwasaMicrosoftExcelfilereceivedfromPatRyanonJune18,2000withthefilenameEMISSION.XLS.Theinformationinthefollowingcolumnswasuseddirectly:b F(5h8(b S     S5<25h  1  .3  0    StateS5<l<݌(#(# Ќ   S     S =25h  2  .3  0    StateIDS =D=݌(#(# Ќ   S     S=25h  3  .3  0    CountyIDS=>݌(#(# Ќ   S     S>25h  4  .3  0    FacilityID(Radian)S>>݌^(#(# Ќ   S     Sǫ?25h  5  .3  0    IASRegionSǫ??݌<(#(# Ќ   S     SLj@25h  6  .3  0    SICSLj@@݌j(#(# Ќ   S     S^A25h  7  .3  0    MTFSectorS^AA݌H(#(# Ќ   S     S;B25h  8  .3  0    SectorDescriptionS;BrB݌&(#(# Ќ   S     S C25h  9  .3  0    MikeGeorgeFacilityNameS CWC݌(#(# Ќ   S     S D25h  10  .3  0    SourceTypeS DCD݌(#(# Ќ   S     SD25h  11  .3  0    WRAP1990(SO2Emissions)SD"E݌p(#(# Ќ   S     SE25h  12  .3  0    1996(SO2Emissions)SEF݌N(#(# Ќ    The1998SO2emissionestimatesweretakenfromoneoftwocolumnslabeledMike  Z GeorgesWRAP1099fileorLatimer. :   Thedecisionrulesusedtoselecttheappropriate1998SO2emissionestimatewereas !! follows: b T(Eh 8Fb S     SǑH2Eh  1  .3  0    IftheSource:MikeGeorgesWRAP1099filecolumnhadanumericentry,itwas B$$ used.SǑHH݌ (#(# Ќ   S     SI2Eh  2  .3  0    Otherwise,theemissionestimateintheLatimercolumnwasused.SIJ݌&P!&(#(# Ќ   S     SJ2Eh  3  .3  0    TheexceptiontotheabovewasthattheLatimercolumnwasusedintotalforall &0"' Oregon,Utah,andWyomingpointsources.SJK݌ (#(# Ќ    Oncethiscompositeemissionsdatafilewascompiled,twocolumnswereaddedtorecordinformationabouttheprimaryreasonsforemissionschangesthatwereobservedfrom1990to1998.Then,StateairpollutioncontrolagencieswerecontactedforinformationaboutwhySO2emissionchangesoccurredfrom1990to1998.Thisanalysis ,f'- focusedonfacilitieswhoseSO2emissionschangedbymorethan250tpy(upordown)over ,D(. thisperiod.AsummaryoftheStatecontactsandtheauxiliaryfilesandotherinformationthatwasprovidedtoPechanduringthisStateconsultationprocessisinTableII1. .*0 Ї*HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[    A.0  RACT/BACT/LAERCLEARINGHOUSE*NGeor AO(#(#    & %X XYH&u%% &   TheEPA 3RACT/BACT/LAERClearinghouse(RBLC 3)P)wasusedtoqueryforsituations  whereSO2emissionswereaffectedinthewesternStates.RACT,BACT,andLAERare n acronymsfordifferentprogramrequirementsundertheCleanAirAct. nq   nqYQ0  2Eh  1  .3  0(#(#  3RACT,orReasonablyAvailableControlTechnology 3Q,isrequiredonexisting  X sourcesinareasthatarenotmeetingnationalambientairqualitystandards(i.e.,nonattainmentareas).nqYQQ݌ (#(# Ќ   nq   nqS0  2Eh  2  .3  0(#(#  3BACT,orBestAvailableControlTechnology 3S,isrequiredonmajornewormodified    sourcesincleanareas(i.e.,attainmentareas).nqSBS݌ (#(# Ќ   nq   nqT0  2Eh  3  .3  0(#(#  3LAER,orLowestAchievableEmissionRate 3;U,isrequiredonmajornewormodified ^  sourcesinnonattainmentareas.nqTT݌ (#(# Ќ    However,dataintheClearinghouseisnotlimitedtojustsourcessubjecttotheserequirements.NoteworthypreventionandcontroltechnologydecisionsareincludedintheRBLCeveniftheyarenotrelatedtoRACT,BACT,orLAERdecisions.  ThisdatabasedidnotidentifysituationswhereSO2emissionsinthewesternStates p wereinfluencedbyemissionlimits.QuerieswererunforSO2foreachofthethreeEPA N regionswithStatesinthestudyarea(RegionsVIII,IX,andX).SearcheswerelimitedtoRBLCdeterminationsaddedduringorafterJanuary1990.NofacilitiesmatchedthesearchcriteriaforRegionX.OnlyonefacilitymatchedthecriteriaforRegionVIII.ThiswasacogenerationplantwithNOxcontrolsspecifiedintheRBLC,butnoSOxcontrol.The  RegionIXquerygeneratedalistofabout30facilitiesinCalifornia(oneinArizona),butallwereminorsourcesofSO2thatdidnotappearinthe9Stateemissionsdataset.  *HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[    B.0  SMELTERS*ZZ  Z>(#(#    & %X XYH&u%% &   TableII2liststhe9Statesmelteremissionsfor1990,1996,and1998.This n informationisunchangedfromthatreceivedfromtheWRAPDataWorkingGroup.Notethatthistableincludesbothsmeltersandmines.ThelargestplantlevelemissionschangeresultsfromtheplantmodernizationthatoccurredattheKennecottsmelterinUtahduringthemid1990s.TheAsarcoHaydensmelterinArizonahada31daymajorshutdowninMarch/April1998.Duringthisshutdown,theflashfurnacewasrebuiltandtheexistinggashandlingsystemwasreplaced.Duringthethirdquarterof1999,PhelpsDodgetemporarilycloseditsHidalgosmelterinNewMexicoandthesmallerofitstwoconcentratorsatitsMorenci,Arizonaminingcomplex.Theproductioncurtailmentwillresultinanaveragereductionofapproximately150millionpoundsoftotalannualcopperproduction,butallowsthecompanytoretainitsabilitytosmeltsubstantiallyallofitscopperconcentratesinternallyatitsChinosmelterinNewMexico,andcontinuetoproducemostoftheacidconsumedbyitsminingoperations.  d)$* :  HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[ 1?  TableII1  PointSourceDataContacts:_  1?:`   & %X XYH&u%% &   }&8%%H&u}M%}&8*eCrddd Xdd Xdd X(#(#,Gdd ,f dd , dd +   ^ State ' 'Contact ' 'DataSourcesandComments  1.Arizona   n MikeGeorge   n  1998SO2emissionestimatesfrom  n  LathaToopal,ArizonaDEQ   0  2.California  6   JonTaylor  6   Cal_sox_summary1.xls  6  3.Colorado    RoyDoyle    SO2INVNE.XLS    4.Idaho  2  MattStoll  2  RevisedemissionestimatesfortheNUWEST(nowAGRIUM)facility.CurrentyearemissionestimateswereprovidedbyEPARegionX.  (x  5.Nevada  ~  ColleenCrippsAlLeskys(ClarkCountyHealthDistrict)  @ Provided1998SO2emissionsforNV. ~  ProvidedestimatesforChemicalLimeandTitaniumMetals  R 6.NewMexico  X DaveWunker  X Some1998SO2emissionestimates X  arefromAIRSData(June23,2000).NewMexicodataupdatesreceivedinemissiontbl_rev.xls.  # 7.Oregon  D$ SteveAalbers  D% ProvidedcorrectionstosomeSO2 D& emissionestimatesforall3historicalyearsoregoncorrections.xls  x( 8.Utah  ) BrockLeBaron  * NochangestopreviouslysuppliedSO2emissionestimates  , 9.Wyoming  6- LeeGribovicz  6. TABLE51.XLSreceivedonJuly17,2000fromLeeGribovicz 0 #H }Ma##H&u% H1a#  0 :  HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[ 1?  TableII2  SmelterSO2EmissionsSummary:iie 1?i     & %X XYH&u%% &   )H %H&u&" H  *lCd dGdd Gf dd f dd eCr(#(#,(,N ,,,|(+  -# ^ 8-State 3)`  3FacilityName(1990) 3)`  3SO2tpy   1990 3)`  " 3SO2tpy   1996 3)`  " 3SO2tpy   1998 A7` " 8 ,AArizona 3)V  3ASARCOSMELTER-HAYDEN VLV  @29814P@V_29,814_Ԉ yo;V UP @29814 @ ,@33124P,@y_33,124_Ԉ yo;V UP ,@33124 ,@ @@22077P@@y_22,077_Ԉ dZAV UP @@22077 , @@ ,dArizona 3)L  3BHP(MagmaMetals) VLL  @15900P@V_15,900_Ԉ {q;L UP @15900 @ ffffI@16678.1PffffI@{_16,678_Ԉ {q=L UP ffffI@16678.1 ffffI@ T@10409PT@{_10,409_Ԉ dZAL UP T@10409 , T@ ,dArizona 3)B  3CYPRUSMIAMIMINE UKB  ,@5676P,@U_5,676_Ԉ wm:B UP ,@5676 ,@ i@5737Pi@w_5,737_Ԉ wm:B UP i@5737 i@ ѷ@6097Pѷ@w_6,097_Ԉ cY@B UP ѷ@6097 , ѷ@ ,cArizona 3)8  3CyprusSierrita TJ8  @800P@T_800_Ԉ uk98  UP @800 @  @548P @u_548_Ԉ TJ98 !UP  @548  @ PT<100 A78 "UP , ,ANewMexico 3).~ # 3PHELPSDODGE/CHINOMINES VL.~ $ f@28058Pf@V_28,058_Ԉ |r;.~ %UP f@28058 f@  ףp=@14784.48P ףp=@|_14,784_Ԉ |r>.~ &UP  ףp=@14784.48  ףp=@ @15685P@|_15,685_Ԉ dZA.~ 'UP @15685 , @ ,dNewMexico 3)$t ( 3PHELPSDODGE/HIDALGOSMELTER VL$t )  ;@41433P ;@V_41,433_Ԉ {q;$t *UP  ;@41433  ;@ ffffF^@32121.1PffffF^@{_32,121_Ԉ {q=$t +UP ffffF^@32121.1 ffffF^@ @29188P@{_29,188_Ԉ dZA$t ,UP @29188 , @ ,dUtah 3)j - 3KennecottUtahCopperCorp. VLj . @3@26829P@3@V_26,829_Ԉ xn;j /UP @3@26829 @3@ P@1556PP@x_1,556_Ԉ vl:j 0UP P@1556 P@ Ї@762PЇ@v_762_Ԉ \R?j 1UP Ї@762 , Ї@ ,\ -#` 2 -Totals WM` 3  A148510P AW_148,510_Ԉ {q<` 4UP  A148510  A P@104549PP@{_104,549_Ԉ zp<` 5UP P@104549 P@ @84218P@z_84,218_ԈQGE` 6UP @84218 ,  @ Q)je&&%"&H&u%%&&   * 6 *HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[    C.0  NONSMELTERS*G  (#(#    & %X XYH&u%% &   TableII3summariesthe1990to1998SO2emissionsforthenonsmelters.Thistable  showsthat1996nonsmelterSO2emissionsdeclinedby11percentfrom1990levels.Non n smelterSO2emissionsremainedstablefrom1996to1998.ThemajorfactorsintheSO2 L emissionchangesbyStatearedescribedbelow:  1.0  Arizona!reductionsinSO2from1990to1998inthisStateareprimarily  6 attributabletotheprocesschangesatStoneContainer,nowAbitibi. (#(#   2.0  California!ObservedchangesinSO2emissionsinthisStateduringthe1990sare    acombinationoffactors,includingfuelswitching,oilandgasindustryproductionchanges,andrefinerycrudequality. (#(#   3.0  Colorado!sulfuremissionsarerelativelyconstantoverthetimeperiod1990to H  1998. (#(#   4.0  Idaho!Emissionchangesareproducedbyproductionvariationsduringthe1990s.  Notethatthe1990emissionestimatesforthisStatearefromthe1985 3NationalAcidPrecipitationAssessmentProgram(NAPAP 3N)inventory,sotheyarenot1990emissionsestimates. (#(#   5.0  NewMexico!Emissionsduring1990aredominatedbygasplants.Changesto 8 previousSO2emissionestimatesthatwereprovidedbytheNewMexicoBureauof  AirQualityweremostlychangingpotentialtoemitvaluestoactualemissions. (#(#   6.0  Nevada!ThereareasmallnumberofnonutilityfacilitiesinNevada.Notethat ` notall1996emissionestimateswerecorroboratedbytheState,ortheClarkCountyHealthDistrict,so1996emissionestimatesshownmaynotbeactualvalues. (#(#   7.0  Oregon!EmissionsinthisStatearedominatedbythepulpandpaperindustry.  Inaddition,ReynoldsMetalshassomesignificantproductionvariationsduringthe1990sthataffectStatewideemissiontrends,aswell. (#(#   8.0  Utah!MostoftheSO2emissionreductionsinUtahresultedfromcontrols .#~# requiredbythePM10SIPfortheSaltLakeCitynonattainmentarea. $\$(#(#   9.0  Wyoming!EmissionchangesinthisStatewereaffectedmostlybynewwellfield %!& drillingprogramsduring1996and1998. (#(#   Changesinemissionsthathaveoccurredoverthisperiodwereclassifiedintosixcategories:(1)marketdrivenproductionchanges,(2)plantclosures,(3)processchanges,(4)fuelswitching,(5)controlsinresponsetoairpollutioncontrolregulations,and(6)emissionestimationmethodchanges.  TableII4summarizestheemissionchangesthathavebeenestimatedtooccuroverthisperiodaccordingtotheprimaryreasonfortheemissionchange.Thisanalysiswas  -(/ :  HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[ 1?  TableII3  StateLevelNonSmelterSO2EmissionsSummary:J3 1?     & %X XYH&u%% &   )H %H&u&" H  *lCfd d(N N |(|lC(#(#,D(, , , +  -# ^ 8-State 3)`  3SO2tpy  1990 3)` " 3SO2tpy   1996 3)`  " 3SO2tpy   1998 A7`  " 8 ,AArizona UKV   @8989P@U8,989 wm:V UP @8989 @ @3138P@w3,138 wm:V UP @3138 @ 6@4150P6@w4,150 cY@V UP 6@4150 , 6@ ,cCalifornia VLL  @35973P@V35,973 yo;L UP @35973 @ >@37366P>@y37,366 yo;L UP >@37366 >@ @36640P@y36,640 dZAL UP @36640 , @ ,dColorado UKB  (@8273P(@U8,273 wm:B UP (@8273 (@ |@8440P|@w8,440 wm:B UP |@8440 |@ %@7461P%@w7,461 cY@B UP %@7461 , %@ ,cIdaho VL8  @24350P@V24,350 yo;8 UP @24350 @ E@22806PE@y22,806 yo;8 UP E@22806 E@ @22299P@y_22,299_Ԉ dZA8 UP @22299 , @ ,dNevada UK.~  ܑ@1143Pܑ@U1,143 vl:.~ UP ܑ@1143 ܑ@ @u@340P@u@v340 uk9.~ UP @u@340 @u@ H@521PH@u_521 bX?.~ UP H@521 , H@ ,bNewMexico VL$t !  #@37145P #@V37,145 yo;$t "UP  #@37145  #@ `@36395P`@y36,395 yo;$t #UP `@36395 `@ @32756P@y32,756 dZA$t $UP @32756 , @ ,dOregon UKj % T@8360PT@U8,360 wm:j &UP T@8360 T@ j@4202Pj@w4,202 wm:j 'UP j@4202 j@ <@6716P<@w6,716 cY@j (UP <@6716 , <@ ,cUtah VL` ) @26592P@V26,592 xn;` *UP @26592 @ ޽@7646P޽@x7,646 wm:` +UP ޽@7646 ޽@ @6418P@w6,418 cY@` ,UP @6418 , @ ,cWyoming VLV - @32326P@V32,326 yo;V .UP @32326 @ @42292P@y42,292 yo;V /UP @42292 @  @45134P @y45,134_Ԉ dZAV 0UP  @45134 ,  @ ,dTotals QGL1  0Px[AQ_183,151_Ԉ oe6L2UP  0 x[A  0PAo_162,625_Ԉ oe6L3UP  0 A  0PxAo_162,095_ԈLB@L4UP  0 , xA L)&&%"&H&u%%&&   4 :  HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[ 1?  TableII4  Reasonsfor1990to1998SO2EmissionsChanges:-  1?     & %X XYH&u%% &   *Cd dD(D      lCf(#(#,dd ,jdd+   ^ }&8%%H&u}M%}&8PrimaryReasonforEmissionChange ' '  1990to1998SO2EmissionsChange(tpy)   Marketdrivenproductionchanges A7  n -8114A_(8,114)_ A75 nU -8114  APlantshutdowns @6 t   @4336@@_4,336_Ԉ @64t  U @4336 @ @Processchanges A7    @12755@A_12,755_Ԉ A75  U @12755 @ AFuelswitch @6  p   @1923 @@_1,923_Ԉ @64 p U  @1923  @ @Controlsinresponsetoairregulations A7 v  @22544@A22,544 A75v U @22544 @ AEmissionestimationmethodchange @6   @4773@@ @6   Ÿ@6341Ÿ@@_6,3414,773_Ԉ I?4 U @4773 @ ITotal J@"r   @38217 @J J@"r  ;@39391;@J_39,3918,217_ԈE;9"r U  @38217   @ E#H }M##H&u% Hů#  j basedprimarilyoninformationprovidedbyStateandlocalairpollutioncontrolagencystaffaboutfacilitySO2emissionsthatchangedbymorethan250tonsperyearoverthis  period.Smelteremissionschangesarenotincludedinthistable.TableII4showsthatthemorethanonehalfoftheobservedemissionchangefrom1990to1998fromthissectorwasinresponsetoairpollutioncontrolemissionregulations.However,mostofthe22thousandtonemissionreductionoccurredatsourcesinUtah,sothereductionwasnotevenlyspreadoverthewesternStateregion.ThereductionsobservedinUtahwereinPM10nonattainmentareas.     OthersignificantfactorsaffectingSO2emissionsfromnonsmelterpointsourcesinthe ~   regionincludedmarketdriveproductionchanges(theseincreasedregionalSO2emissions), \   processchanges,andemissionestimationmethodchanges.Notethatemissionestimationmethodchangesareartificial,ratherthanrealreductionsinSO2.Inaddition,thereare h  instanceswheremorethanoneofthesefactorsinfluencedfacilitylevelemissionchanges.OnlytheprimaryfactorisrepresentedinTableII4(onewasselectedforeachfacility).*HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[    D.0  FACILITYLEVELDATA*  M (#(#    & %X XYH&u%% &   Facilitylevelemissionestimatesthathavebeenusedtoperformthisanalysisare p providedinAppendixA.ThisinformationissortedbyState,andthenalphabeticallybyplantnamewithintheState.Facilitynamechangesthathaveoccurredduringthestudyperiodarenoted.  8 .      ?C' xdEx?  H R>!%H&u  )6!!H R>    CHAPTERIII  SO2EMISSIONPROJECTIONS.cG * / ?C' xdEb x? c     & %! )6H&u%% &     ThischapterpresentsthesmelterandothernonutilitysectorsourceSO2emission  F projectionsto2018.Fornonutilities,IASmethodswereusedtoestimatepotentialemissionsin2003,2008,2013,and2018.Inshort,thisanalysistakesthebestestimatesof1998SO2emissionsatthefacilitylevel,andappliesIASgrowthandretirementrates,and   newsourceemissionratestoestablishabaselinefutureyearforecast.*HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[    A.0  PROJECTIONMETHODS*Tnre *z (#(#    & %X XYH&u%% &   FigureIII1summarizestheemissionprojectiontechniquesusedinthisstudyforthe  Z nonsmelters.ThestartingpointfortheemissionprojectionsisthefacilitylevelSO2 8 emissionestimatesdescribedinChapterII.BecausetheIASModelisorganizedsothatemissionsareprojectedbyIAScell(acombinationofIASRegionandsourcecategory(scc_id)),moredetailabouttheindividualsourcetypeswithinaplantisneededthanisprovidedbyafacilitylevelemissionestimate.Tosolvethisproblem,the1998facilitylevelemissionswereallocatedto 3SourceClassificationCodes(SCC 3ؾ)usingtheSO2emission > proportionsfromthe1990GCVTCinventory(Radian,1995).Then,theseSO2emissionsby l SCCwerelinkedwithIAScells(regionandscc_id).TheIAScellsdeterminethegrowthfactors,retirementrates,andnewversusexistingsourcecontrolfactors.  Thegrowthfactors,retirementrates,andnewsourcecontrolfactorsaretoovoluminoustodisplayinthisreport.ReadersinterestedinmoredetailabouttheprojectionmethodsarereferredtothetworeportspreparedbyPechanduring1999todocument(Pechan,1999a)andaugment(Pechan,1999b)theIASmodelforthe 3WesternGovernorsAssociation(WGA 3).TherearealsoreportsbyArgonneandDecisionFocus,Inc.from1995thatprovidethemostdetailedreportingoftheIASmodeldevelopment.Thesereportsareallcitedonthereferencepageofthisreport.  NotethatalloftheIASmodeldatabasesthatwereusedinthisanalysiswerethosereceivedfromPatRyaninJune2000.ThisversionofthemodelshouldincludeallofthenonutilityaugmentationsthatweremadeintheSpringof1999(seePechan,1999b).WhilemodificationswerebeingmadetotheutilitysectormodelingportionofIASduring2000,thoseupdateswouldnotaffectthenonutilitymodelingdatabases.  Thefollowingequationillustratestheemissionprojectioncalculationthatwasperformedforeachoftheprojectionyearsinthisanalysis.  EMpy=EMby(1RTpy)+NWCTEMby(GFpy󀄀(1RTpy)) R+&, where:  EMpy0  =0  (# (#Projectionyearemissions-^(. (# (#   EMby0  =0  (# (#Baseyearemissions #-<)/ (# (# #FIGUREIII10 EmissionProjectionMethodsDiagramp<,(`~0<' `#.E<'<'Xd(pp<,(`~0<P( `#.E<P(<P(Xd(p (#(#                                               (#(#  r-(/   RTpy0  =0  (# (#Percentretiredinprojectionyear (# (#   NWCT0  =0  (# (#Emissionlevelfornewsources(relativetoexisting) (# (#   GFpy0  =0  (# (#Growthfactorforprojectionyearl (# (#   Essentially,theequationissimply:  EMpy=EMex,py+EMnw,py  4 where:  EMex,py0  =0  (# (#Residualemissionsfromexistingsources(baseyearminusretirements)  (# (#   EMnw,py0  =0  (# (#Newsourceemissionsduetogrowthandretirement,atthenewsource ~   emissionlevel  (# (# *HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[    B.0  PROJECTIONRESULTS*nre h (#(#    & %X XYH&u%% &   TableIII1presentstheSO2emissionprojectionsforcoppersmeltersfor2003to2018 H  thathavebeenagreeduponbytheEmissionsForumandtheMTF.Thisprojectionassumesthatcoppersmelteroperationsandemissionsremainconstantoverthe20yearprojectiontimehorizonatnear1998emissionlevels.NotethatKennecottUtahCopperCorporationSO2emissionslistedinTableIII1onlyincludethesmelteremissionsfrom p thatfacility.Boileremissionsfromthisfacilityareincludedintheutilitysectoranalysis.  NonsmelterSO2emissionprojectionresultsfor2003,2008,2013,and2018areshown  Z inTableIII2foreachoftheninewesternStates.ForthenineStateregion,theIASbasedemissionprojectionsshowthatnonsmelteremissionsareexpectedtodecreasefrom162,100tpyin1998to140,760tpyin2018!a13percentdecline.ExpectedchangesinanyindividualStatearedirectlyrelatedtotheindustrytypesinthatState,andIASregionbasedgrowthfactorsforthoseindustries.StateswithexpectedSO2emissionsoverthe20 ` yearforecastperiodincludeArizona,Colorado,andNevada.IdahosSO2emissionsare > expectedtoremainconstantovertheforecastperiod.StateswithexpectedSO2emission l declinesby2018includeCalifornia,NewMexico,Oregon,Utah,andWyoming.  RegionalSO2emissionprojectionresultsbyMTFSectorareinTableIII3,andprovide  someinsightabouthowindustrydifferencesaffecttheresults.BecausetheOilandGasIndustry(MTFSector6)dominatestheSO2emissionsinthisregion,theSO2emissionsfor r!! thissectorarefurtherbrokendownamongOil/GasProduction,PetroleumRefining,andOther.TableIII3showsthattheexpecteddeclinesinSO2emissionsoverthe20year .#~# forecasthorizonarelargelyattributabletotheexpectedreductionsfromoil/gasproductionandrefineries.  TableIII4showstheregionalbreakdownbetweenexistingsourceandnewsourceemissionsinthefutureyearSO2emissionprojections.Thisinformationisprovidedto '"( assisttheMTFinmakingSO2emissionallocationsfornewversusexistingsources. b(#)   TableIII5presentsanexampleSO2emissionsprojectionto2018forapetroleum *n%+ refineryusingIASbasedmethods.ThisexampleshowshowthevariousSO2sources *L&, withinthefacilityaretreatedinthe20yearprojection.TheIASmodelusessourcecategories,listedasscc_idsinTableIII5tolinkemissionsourceswithgrowthfactors,retirementrates,andnewsourcecontrollevels.Thescc_idinpererepresentsprocess -(/ sourcesatrefineries.Inthisexample,therefineryprocesssourcesareablowdownsystem  v.)0 :  HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[ 1?  TableIII1  CopperSmelterSO2EmissionProjections(tpy): 1?:     & %X XYH&u%% &   )Hd %H&u&R" Hd  *x,C_dddd jddjC(#(#x,dd ,| dd ,:dd,:dd,:dd,:dd+   ^ State ' 'FacilityName I? L@2003L@I2003 ka4" L@2003 L@ `@2008`@k2008 ka4" `@2008 `@ t@2013t@k2013 ka4 " t@2013 t@ @2018@k2018 @64 " @2018 @ @Arizona   p  ASARCOSmelterHayden 8.  p  v@23000v@823,000 [Q, p  v@23000 v@ v@23000v@[23,000 [Q, p v@23000 v@ v@23000v@[23,000 [Q, p v@23000 v@ v@23000v@[23,000 8., p v@23000 v@ 8Arizona  ~  BHPSanManuel 8. ~  @@16000@@816,000 [Q,~  @@16000 @@ @@16000@@[16,000 [Q,~  @@16000 @@ @@16000@@[16,000 [Q,~  @@16000 @@ @@16000@@[16,000 8.,~  @@16000 @@ 8Arizona   , CYPRUSMIAMIMINE 7-  , @@8000@@78,000 YO+ , @@8000 @@ @@8000@@Y8,000 YO+ , @@8000 @@ @@8000@@Y8,000 YO+ , @@8000 @@ @@8000@@Y8,000 7-+ , @@8000 @@ 7NewMexico  :  PHELPSDODGECHINOMINES 8. :  @@16000@@816,000 [Q,:  @@16000 @@ @@16000@@[16,000 [Q,:  @@16000 @@ @@16000@@[16,000 [Q,: ! @@16000 @@ @@16000@@[16,000 8.,: " @@16000 @@ 8NewMexico   # PHELPSDODGEHIDALGOSMELTER 8.  $ |@22000|@822,000 [Q, % |@22000 |@ |@22000|@[22,000 [Q, & |@22000 |@ |@22000|@[22,000 [Q, ' |@22000 |@ |@22000|@[22,000 8., ( |@22000 |@ 8Utah  F ) KennecottUtahCopperCorp. 7- F * @@1000@@71,000 YO+F + @@1000 @@ @@1000@@Y1,000 YO+F , @@1000 @@ @@1000@@Y1,000 YO+F - @@1000 @@ @@1000@@Y1,000 D:+F . @@1000 @@ DTotalCopperSmelter MCT / @86000@M86,000 mc5T 0U @86000 @ @86000@m86,000 mc5T 1U @86000 @ @86000@m86,000 mc5T 2U @86000 @ @86000@m_86,000_ԈE;9T 3U @86000  @ E)p &&%"&RH&u%%&&   N3 :  HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[ 1?  TableIII2  NonSmelterSO2EmissionProjections(tpy):3 1?     & %X XYH&u%% &   )Hd %H&uR" Hd  *glCidddd | dd | :dd::dd::dd::dd:,C_(#(#,D(,,,,,+  -# ^ 8-State UK 8@19988@U1998 wm:" 8@1998 8@ L@2003L@w2003 wm:" L@2003 L@ `@2008`@w2008 wm:" `@2008 `@ t@2013t@w2013 wm: " t@2013 t@ @2018@w2018 cY@ " @2018 8 @ ,cArizona UK   6@4150P6@U4,150 wm:  UP 6@4150 6@ @4508P@w4,508 wm:  UP @4508 @ q@4977Pq@w4,977 wm: UP q@4977 q@ @5266P@w5,266 wm: UP @5266 @ ?@5695P?@w5,695 cY@ UP ?@5695 , ?@ ,cCalifornia VL   @36641P @V36,641 yo; UP  @36641  @  @34926P @y34,926 yo; UP  @34926  @ !@33037P!@y33,037 yo; UP !@33037 !@ f@31131Pf@y31,131 yo; UP f@31131 f@ @@29237P@@y29,237 dZA UP @@29237 , @@ ,dColorado UKx  %@7461P%@U7,461 wm:x UP %@7461 %@ D@7492PD@w7,492 wm:x UP D@7492 D@ @7586P@w7,586 wm:x UP @7586 @ @7555P@w7,555 wm:x UP @7555 @ Ž@7621PŽ@w7,621 cY@x UP Ž@7621 , Ž@ ,cIdaho VLn  @22300P@V22,300 yo;n UP @22300 @ @22346P@y22,346 yo;n UP @22346 @ @@22441P@@y22,441 yo;n  UP @@22441 @@ @22298P@y22,298 yo;n !UP @22298 @ @22342P@y22,342 dZAn "UP @22342 , @ ,dNevada TJd # H@521PH@T521 uk9d $UP H@521 H@ x@591Px@u591 uk9d %UP x@591 x@ @656P@u656 uk9d &UP @656 @ @723P@u723 uk9d 'UP @723 @ @789P@u789 bX?d (UP @789 , @ ,bNewMexico VLZ ) @32755P@V32,755 yo;Z *UP @32755 @ @30319P@y30,319 yo;Z +UP @30319 @ :@27882P:@y27,882 yo;Z ,UP :@27882 :@ @25443P@y25,443 yo;Z -UP @25443 @ w@23006Pw@y23,006 dZAZ .UP w@23006 , w@ ,dOregon UKP / <@6716P<@U6,716 wm:P 0UP <@6716 <@ "@6690P"@w6,690 wm:P 1UP "@6690 "@ @6630P@w6,630 wm:P 2UP @6630 @ p@6512Pp@w6,512 wm:P 3UP p@6512 p@ '@6439P'@w6,439 cY@P 4UP '@6439 , '@ ,cUtah UKF 5 @6418P@U6,418 wm:F 6UP @6418 @ @6278P@w6,278 wm:F 7UP @6278 @ @6145P@w6,145 wm:F 8UP @6145 @ e@5989Pe@w5,989 wm:F 9UP e@5989 e@ ۶@5851P۶@w5,851 cY@F :UP ۶@5851 , ۶@ ,cWyoming VL< ;  @45135P @V45,135 yo;< <UP  @45135  @ d@43808Pd@y43,808 yo;< =UP d@43808 d@ @42484P@y42,484 yo;< >UP @42484 @ @41118P@y41,118 yo;< ?UP @41118 @ m@39784Pm@y39,784 dZA< @UP m@39784 , m@ ,dTotals WM2 A A162100PAW_162,100_Ԉ {q<2 BUP A162100 A )A156960P)A{_156,960_Ԉ {q<2 CUP )A156960 )A A151840PA{_151,840_Ԉ {q<2 DUP A151840 A pA146030PpA{_146,030_Ԉ {q<2 EUP pA146030 pA .A140760P.A{_140,760_ԈRHF2 FUP .A140760 , .A R)&%"RH&u%%&   LF :  HX[X%H&u XYXXHX[ 1?  TableIII3  NonSmelterSO2EmissionProjections(tpy)  MTFSector:# 3 1?}    & %X XYH&u%% &   )Hd %H&uR" Hd  *UlCvd dD(DglCi(#(#,&(, (,,,,,+  -# N  8- 6,  6 dZ'  8@19988@d1998 wm: " 8@1998 8@ L@2003L@w2003 wm:  " L@2003 L@ `@2008`@w2008 wm:  " `@2008 `@ t@2013t@w2013 wm:  " t@2013 t@ @2018@w2018 x@  " @2018 8 @  ?1,?1 UK7|    ?1 ? UElectricity cY'|  H@553PH@c553 uk9| UP H@553 H@ 0@550P0@u550 uk9| UP 0@550 0@ @547P@u547 uk9| UP @547 @ @544P@u544 uk9| UP @544 @ @541P@u541 w?| UP @541 , @  @3,@3 UK7r   @3 @ UWood/Paper/Pulp dZ'r  4@9321P4@d9,321 wm:r UP 4@9321 4@ q@9443Pq@w9,443 wm:r UP q@9443 q@ @9603P@w9,603 wm:r UP @9603 @ @9598P@w9,598 wm:r UP @9598 @ @9722P@w9,722 x@r UP @9722 , @  @4,@4 UK7h   @4 @ UCement/Concrete dZ'h  @7699P@d7,699 wm:h UP @7699 @ s@8423Ps@w8,423 wm:h UP s@8423 s@ @9152P@w9,152 wm:h UP @9152 @  @9747P @w9,747 xn:h  UP  @9747  @ g@10447Pg@x10,447 yAh !UP g@10447 , g@  @5,@5 UK7^ "  @5 @ UChemicals/Plastic e['^ # @@20185P@@e20,185 yo;^ $UP @@20185 @@ @20211P@y20,211 yo;^ %UP @20211 @ @20287P@y20,287 yo;^ &UP @20287 @ @20147P@y20,147 yo;^ 'UP @20147 @ @20176P@y20,176 yA^ (UP @20176 , @  @6,@_6_ UK7T )  @6 @ UOil/Gas B8'T * PBЈ 3)T +UP P3Ј 3)T ,UP P3Ј 3)T -UP P3Ј 3)T .UP P3Ј A7T /UP , ,A 6,J 0 6ЀSIC13Oil/GasProduction e['J 1 @52356P@e52,356 yo;J 2UP @52356 @ `@49267P`@y49,267 yo;J 3UP `@49267 `@ `@46171P`@y46,171 yo;J 4UP `@46171 `@  @43088P @y43,088 yo;J 5UP  @43088  @ `@39995P`@y39,995 dZAJ 6UP `@39995 , `@ ,d 6,@ 7 6ЀSIC29Refining e['@ 8 c@47901Pc@e47,901 yo;@ 9UP c@47901 c@ @@44810P@@y44,810 yo;@ :UP @@44810 @@ Z@41684PZ@y41,684 yo;@ ;UP Z@41684 Z@ @38484P@y38,484 yo;@ <UP @38484 @ A@35340PA@y35,340 dZA@ =UP A@35340 , A@ ,d 6,6 > 6ЀOther cY'6 ? w@376Pw@c376 uk96 @UP w@376 w@ v@362Pv@u362 uk96 AUP v@362 v@ u@347Pu@u347 uk96 BUP u@347 u@ t@333Pt@u333 uk96 CUP t@333 t@ s@318Ps@u318 w?6 DUP s@318 , s@  @7,@7 UK7,| E  @7 @ UFood dZ',| F Ա@4564PԱ@d4,564 wm:,| GUP Ա@4564 Ա@ @4484P@w4,484 wm:,| HUP @4484 @ /@4399P/@w4,399 wm:,| IUP /@4399 /@ հ@4309Pհ@w4,309 wm:,| JUP հ@4309 հ@ @4223P@w4,223 x@,| KUP @4223 , @   @8, @8 UK7"rL   @8  @ UGlass dZ'"rM ̟@2035P̟@d2,035 wm:"rNUP ̟@2035 ̟@ Ρ@2279PΡ@w2,279 wm:"rOUP Ρ@2279 Ρ@ n@2487Pn@w2,487 wm:"rPUP n@2487 n@ @2690P@w2,690 wm:"rQUP @2690 @ @2897P@w2,897 x@"rRUP @2897 , @  "@9,"@9 UK7hS  "@9 "@ UMiscellaneous dZ'hT @2679P@d2,679 wm:hUUP @2679 @ @2644P@w2,644 wm:hVU