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TYZ[\]^_xGaeimquy}Bullet ListBullets Lista` d@LTABLE B2cc0Level 1  XXX?k%2A`Arial?  ?k%2A`Arial?XXX%2A`Arial\  `TmsRmn(5hCEKQW]cioAutoList11.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.\  `&Times New Roman  s)USUS.,  _&%XXSensitivityAnalysis,July28,2001:!:!:!(#Page  1  (.3$ !USUS.,  !USUS.,  _Hr    _SensitivityAnalysistoQuantifytheBenefitsAchievedbyanEmissionCap   m PurposeandSummary   TheAnnextotheGrandCanyonCommissionReport(Annex)thatwassubmittedtoEPAonOctober2,2000demonstratedthattheregionalSO2milestonefortheyear2018providedgreater x  reasonableprogressthanBestAvailableRetrofitTechnologytoaddressregionalhaze(RHBART).However,therehasbeensomeconcernthatthevisibilitymodelingsubmittedwiththeAnnexdidnotshowgreaterprogress,andthatthefullbenefitsoftheemissionscapwerenotquantified.Toaddressthisconcern,theMarketTradingForumcontractedwithSonomaTechnology,Inc.toperformadditionalvisibilitymodelingaspartofasensitivityanalysis.Thepurposeofthisanalysisistoshowthepotentialvariabilityofemissionsunderthecommandandcontrolscenario,ascomparedtoaregionalemissioncapwhereregulatoryconsequencesoccuriftotalemissionsexceedthemilestones.ThispaperprovidesacontextforinterpretingtheresultsoftheadditionalvisibilitymodelingconductedbyDr.PatrickRyanofSonomaTechnologies,Inc.,asasupplementtothetechnicalsupportdocumentationfortheAnnextotheGrandCanyonCommissionReport,submittedtoEPAonOctober2,2000.ThenewanalysisprovidesamoreappropriatecomparisonbetweenthevisibilitybenefitsbetweenaregionalemissionscapforSO2emissionsfromstationarysources ` andacommandandcontrolstyleapplicationofemissioncontroltechnologyonBARTeligiblesources.Whenfactorsaffectinguncertaintyofemissionsprojectionsareappliedtoprojected2018emissionsunderacommandandcontrolscenario,astheywereforthedevelopmentoftheregionalSO2milestones,thevisibilitybenefitofthe2018milestoneprovidesatleastequivalent ` progresswhencomparedtotheapplicationofBART.SectionFinAttachmentCoftheAnnexprovidesadditionaldemonstrationthattheregionalemissionscapandbackstopcapandtradeprogramforSO2emissionsfromstationarysourcesadoptedbytheWRAPprovidesgreater $ reasonableprogressthanapplicationofsourcebysourceBART. Background   TheWesternRegionalAirPartnership(WRAP)submittedanAnnextotheReportoftheGrandCanyonVisibilityTransportCommission(Annex)totheEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyonOctober2,2000.TheAnnexoutlinedthedetailsofregionalsulfurdioxide(SO2)milestonesand H#! abackstopcapandtradeprogramthatwouldbetriggeredifthemilestoneswerenotmet.ThemilestonesweredesignedtoshowsteadyandcontinuingprogresstowardsreducingSO2  %p # emissions,andtoshowgreaterreasonableprogressthantheapplicationofbestavailableretrofittechnologyforthepurposesofregionalhazevisibilityimpairment(RHBART).Inassessingwhetherthe2018milestoneprovidesgreaterreasonableprogressthanRHBART,theAnnexcomparedvisibilityimprovementunderaregionalemissioncapandadirectapplicationofRHBARTtoindividualsources.Thisearliervisibilitymodelingevaluateda commandandcontrolscenarioand4optionsformilestonesin2018.ItisimportanttonotethatthecommandandcontrolscenariomaynothaverepresentedtheemissionsimpactofsourcebysourceapplicationofBARTinamannercomparablewiththemilestonescenarios. D/*. L aTYZ[\]^_x3RL T3   T323  0    InordertocompletealltheanalysesnecessaryforinclusionintheAnnexandmeetthe  October1,2000deadlineforitssubmittal,itwasnotpossibletousethefinalinventoriesthatwerethebasisforthemilestones.Instead,the2018emissionsinventoriesgeneratedwithintheeconomicanalysiswereinputtotheIntegratedAssessmentSystem(IAS)model.T3)݌ (#(# Ќ   T3   T3'23  0    Thecommandandcontrolscenarioassumedthattheonlychangeinthebaseline 8  emissionswouldbethesourcespecificemissionsreductionsassumedtorepresentRHBART.Noallowancewasmadeforuncertaintiesregardingchangesinfuelsulfurcontent(includingfuelswitching),changesinsourceutilizationandthroughput,orotheroperationalfactorsthatcouldchangeemissionsfromtheassumedbaseline.Assuch,thepotentialoutcomeoftheimplementationofacommandandcontrolapproachwouldbearangeratherthanasinglenumber,withtheupperboundforemissionsverypossiblybeingsignificantlyabovethatwhichwasusedforthevisibilityanalysis.Tothecontrary,theemissionstradingscenariosrepresentedworstcases,inthatthemilestonesarehardcapsonactualemissions,regardlessofhowcircumstanceschange.T3'R݌ (#(# Ќ  Tables2and3inAttachmentCoftheAnnexcontaintheresultsoftheinitialvisibilityanalysis.Whenthecommandandcontrolscenario(totalemissionsof497,000tpyregionwidein2018)iscomparedtothe EPAmilestonenumber(regionwidetotalof506,000tpy,theclosesttothefinal2018milestoneof510,000tpy),itwasshownthatthedifferencesbetweenthetwomodelrunswereverysmall,and,effectively,negligiblebecausetheyarewellbelowtheIASlevelofprecision.Regardless,becausethemodeledcommandandcontrolscenariohadslightlygreateremissionsreductionsthanthefinalmilestones,themodeledvisibilitybenefitofthatscenarioisslightlygreater.TheAnnexdemonstratedthattheemissioncapscenariostillwouldprovidegreaterreasonableprogressthansourcebysourceBART,byfocusingonthebenefitsprovidedbyanemissioncapasopposedtoonlyreducingemissionsfromBARTeligiblesources.SectionFinAttachmentCoftheAnnexoutlinesthesebenefits.AlthoughtheAnnexdemonstratedthatthe2018milestoneprovidedgreaterreasonableprogressthanRHBART,therehasbeensomeconcernthatthevisibilitymodelingdidnotshowgreaterprogress,andthatthefullbenefitsoftheemissionscapwerenotquantified.Toaddressthisconcern,theMarketTradingForumcontractedwithSonomaTechnology,Inc.toperformadditionalvisibilitymodelingaspartofasensitivityanalysis.Thepurposeofthisanalysisistoshowthepotentialvariabilityofemissionsunderthecommandandcontrolscenario,ascomparedtoaregionalemissioncapwhereregulatoryconsequencesoccuriftotalemissionsexceedthemilestones.  |*%)  SensitivityAnalysis   Threeemissioninventoriesfortheyear2018werepreparedforthenewvisibilitymodelingruns.̀1.0  BaseCaseInventory.Thebasecaseemissioninventorywasdevelopedtoestimate ` expectedemissionsintheyear2018priortoimplementingeitheracommandandcontrolorregionalemissioncap.ThisemissioninventoryconsistsofexistingutilitySO2 8  emissionsof421,505tonsperyear,newutilityemissions(proratedacrosstheregionbasedonexistingutilityemissions)of8,277tonsperyear,and7,920tonsperyearfromcombinedheatandpower(asderivedbyICFConsulting,Inc.,inthefinalutilityinventoryfor2018;seeSection2.C.oftheTechnicalSupportDocumentationfortheAnnex).Fornonutilitystationarysources,thesulfurdioxideemissioninventoryconsistsof140,760tonsperyearfrom /lXlEXXX/other/#XXXlXlE #/0nXlEXXX00#XXXnXlE!#01lXlEXXX1sourcesand78,000tonsperyearfromsmelters(perfinalPechaninventories).Thisresultsinatotalsulfurdioxideemissioninventoryfromstationarysourcesof656,462tonsperyearforthebasecase.1#XXXlXlEy!#1 (#(# ̀2.0  CommandandControlInventory,includinguncertainty.2lXlEXXX2Thisemissioninventorydiffers p fromthebasecaseinthat162,500tonsperyearweresubtractedonafacilityspecificbasistoaddressBARTreductions(pertheMTFmethodologydescribedinthe2#XXXlXlE"#23nXlEXXX3 3#XXXnXlE*$#3allstate7"worksheetwithreductionsorderedunderthefinalconsentdecreeontheCraigpowerplantnowincludedinbasecase).ThisresultsinaSO2emissioninventoryof493,962  p tonsperyearfromstationarysources. (#(# 0  Thereareseveralareasofuncertaintyassociatedwithboththebasecaseandthecommandandcontrolscenariothatneedtobeaccountedforinordertomakeafaircomparisontothemarkettradingprogram(whichincludesanabsolutecaponemissions).Notethatthesefactorscouldresultineitherreducedorincreasedemissions.Anythingthatwouldhavetheeffectofreducingemissionsunderacommandandcontrolscenariowoulddothesameunderaregionalemissionscap.Becausethemilestonesrepresentaregionalcaponemissions,however,theappropriatecomparisonwiththemilestoneswouldnecessitatetakingthosefactorsintoaccountthatcouldresultinhigheremissions.Theseinclude: (#(# L aTYZ[\]^_xxaTYZ[\]^_L T3   0  T3v'23  0` (#(#  Assumedretirementsinthebasecaseof47,500tonsperyearinthe othersource #l! categorybetween1998and2018(Pechan)whichmayormaynotoccur.T3v''݌ ` (#` (# Ќ   T3   0  T3(23  0` (#(#  Uncertaintyregardingthelevelofcontrolsthatwouldbeappliedtospecific %0!$ sourcesunderacommandandcontrolBARTapproach(i.e.,theemissionreductionsultimatelyachievedundersuchaprogrammaybelessthanassumedforthisanalysis).T3()݌ ` (#` (# Ќ   T3   0  T3*23  0` (#(#  Uncertaintyregardingnewsourcegrowth,whichmaybegreaterthanassumed.T3**݌|*%)` (#` (# Ќ   T3   0  T3+23  0` (#(#  Uncertaintyregardingcapacityfactorsforelectricutilities.Thebasecaseassumes T,'+ an85%capacityfactor,buttheseunitscouldrunathigherratesduetoenergy @-(, demandwithoutexceedingtheirpermittedlimits.T3++݌ ` (#` (# Ќ   T3   0  T3-23  0` (#(#  Uncertaintyaboutwhethersourceswillcontinuetoemitattheircurrentactual  emissionrates(theemissionratesusedinthebasecaseanalysis)orathigheremissionratesthatarestillwithintheirpermittedlevels.T3--݌ ` (#` (# Ќ  0  TheMTFagreedthat66,000tonsperyear(10%ofbasecasestationarysourcesulfurdioxideemissioninventory)wouldbeareasonableestimateoftheimpactoftheseuncertainties,whichwasthenaddedtothecommandandcontrolscenarioinventoryfor2018andproratedacrosstheregion.Theresultingsulfurdioxideemissioninventoryfromstationarysourcesunderthisapproachwas559,962tonsperyear.Notethatthepotentialimpactoftheseuncertaintiesonreducingemissionsisirrelevanttotheanalysisfortworeasons: (#(#  T3   0  T3l123  0` (#(#  Themilestonesrepresentaworstcasescenarioforacapandtradeprogram;andT3l11݌ ` (#` (# Ќ   T3   0  T3223  0` (#(#  Anyuncertaintiesthatwouldresultinfeweremissionsunderthecommandand p controlscenariowouldhavethesameimpactunderacapandtradescenario.T322݌ ` (#` (# Ќ  0  Thisrevised2018SO2emissionsprojectionforthecommandandcontrolscenariomay 4 beviewedasareasonableestimateofa worstcasescenarioforsourcebysourceapplicationofBART,whichprovidesabettercomparisonwitharegionalemissionscap. (#(# ̀3.0  MilestoneInventory.4lXlEXXX4Thisemissioninventorydiffersfromthebasecaseinthat146,462 4 tonsperyearweresubtractedfromthebasecaseinaccordancewithICF4#XXXlXlE6#45nXlEXXX55#XXXnXlE7#56lXlEXXX6smodelingofwherereductionswilloccurunderthecaptocomplywiththe2018milestoneof510,000tonsperyear.6#XXXlXlE7#6ICFusedaleastcostmodelingapproachtosimulatehowthemarketwouldeffectthegeographicdistributionoftheemissionsreduction. (#(# TheIASwasthenusedtodeterminethevisibilityimprovementindeciviewsforeachofthesethreescenariosforthebest20%days,theworst20%daysandtheannualaveragevisibilitychanges.Thesetwoscenarios(incombinationwiththebasecase)weredesignedtoshowthebenefitsofaregionalemissioncap,ascomparedtoacommandandcontrolscenariothatisappliedtoasubsetofsourcesintheregion.Asdescribedabove,thereareanumberofuncertaintiesintheassumptionsthatwereusedtoprojectthebasecaseandthecommandandcontrolscenario.Notethatthevalueofthisexerciserestsonlyinthecomparisonofoptions.Thebasecaseandthecommandandcontrolscenariosarenotpredictions.Themilestonescenario,however,setsacaponemissionsthatmustbeachieved.AttachmentC,sectionF.4oftheAnnexdescribesthisingreaterdetail.̀Theresultsofthesemodelingrunsareshowninthetableonthefollowingpage.88 @-(, Thistabledemonstratesbenefitsofanemissioncapwheretheregionalemissionreductionsareguaranteed,eveniftheunderlyingassumptionsregardinggrowth,sulfurcontentoffuelorplantoperatingconditionschange.Thevisibilitybenefitunderthemilestonescenarioisgreaterthanwhatisseenunderapotential worstcasecommandandcontrolscenariothataccountsforuncertaintiesthatmayincreaseemissionsnotcontrolledthroughapplicationofBART.TheresultsofthisnewmodelingneedtobeassessedincontextandcombinationwiththeoriginalvisibilitymodelingthatwassubmittedwiththeAnnexinOctober,2000.AsdescribedintheAnnex,theoriginalmodelingshowedthattheexpectedvisibilityimprovementbetweenthecommandandcontrolscenarioandthemilestonescenariowereverysimilar.ThenewmodelingthatwascompletedaspartofthissensitivityanalysisshowsthattheAnnexmilestoneswilllockintheexpectedvisibilityimprovement,evenifchangesoccurthatdifferfromtheunderlyingassumptionsthatwereusedtoprojectemissionstotheyear2018change.*gdhddd Xdd Xdd X(#(#, dd ,4dd ,dd ,edd +  #   #7 XX7 ClassIArea 3)#8 3  PredictedAverageVisibilityImprovementfromtheBaseCasein 8 Deciviewsfor20%WorstDays %  %-C !  !CommandandcontrolassubmittedinAnnex '" 'RevisedCommandandcontrol '" 'Milestone X" ArchesNationalPark @6 (x Q?0.28Q?@0.28 ka4(x" Q?0.28 Q?  ףp= ?0.18 ףp= ?k0.18 ka4(x"  ףp= ?0.18  ףp= ? 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