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óóóˆÐ À Ðà@óóìàWRAP€EMISSIONS€FORUM€/€à@@  ìàEMISSION€INVENTORY€WORK€GROUPˆÐ ä$ Ðà@  ìàSeptember€27„28òòthóó,€2001Ô‡ÅX&9XXÄX&9Ô€€@€€Ô#†ÄX&9XXÅX&9;#ÔRiverside,€CaliforniaˆÐ Ð ÐÌÔ‡ÅX&9XXÄX&9ÔThe€Emissions€Forum€and€Emission€Inventory€Work€Group€convenedÔ#†ÄX&9XXÅX&9®#Ô€at€the€Regional€Modeling€CenterÐ ¨è Ðof€the€University€of€California„RiversideÔ‡ÅX&9XXÄX&9Ô€inÔ#†ÄX&9XXÅX&9Œ#Ô€Riverside,€California€at€8:00€AM€on€September€27òòthóó€and€metÐ ”Ô Ðthrough€September€28,€2001€at€12:00€noon.€€Attendees€included:Ð € À ÐÌÒ(¦Ò„T$„T$(Òà@è è × àÔ‡XXXÄX&9ÔòòNameóóÔ#†ÄX&9XXXµ#ԈРX ˜ ÐÌÔ‡ Xä:UXÄX&9ÔLee€Gribovicz,€Ô_ÔEFÔ_Ô€Co„Chair.....Ð 4 t  ÐDennis€Schwehr,€EF€Co„Chair€...Ð  J  ÐBill€Ô_ÔFishbackÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔEFÔ_Ô€Member.......Ð à  ÐRoy€Doyle,€Ô_ÔEIWGÔ_Ô€Member.........Ð ¶ö  ÐWayne€Leipold,€Ô_ÔEFÔ_Ô€Member.......Ð ŒÌ  ÐSteve€Ô_ÔAalbersÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔEIWGÔ_Ô€Member.....Ð b¢  ÐMike€Ô_ÔSundblomÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔEIWGÔ_Ô€Member.....Ð 8x ÐBob€Ô_ÔLebensÔ_Ô.....................Ð N ÐMark€Saeger....................Ð ä$ ÐJim€Wilson€....................Ô#†ÄX&9XU Xä:#ÔÐ ºú Ðà@‰‰2àÔ‡XXXÄX&9ÔòòAffiliationóóÔ#†ÄX&9XXX´#ԈРX ˜ ÐÌÔ‡ Xä:UXÄX&9ÔWyoming€DEQ,€Air€Quality€DivisionÐ 4 t  ÐWEST€AssociatesÐ  J  ÐExxon„Mobile€Oil€CompanyÐ à  ÐColorado€Health€Dept./Air€QualityÐ ¶ö  ÐPhelps€Dodge€Copper€CompanyÐ ŒÌ  ÐOregon€DEQ,€Air€Quality€DivisionÐ b¢  ÐArizona€DEQ,€Air€Quality€DivisionÐ 8x ÐWESTARÐ N ÐPES€Consulting€FirmÐ ä$ ÐPechan€Consulting€FirmÐ ºú ÐÔ#†ÄX&9XU Xä: #ÔÒ(¦Ò„*„*(Òà@#ìàòòMeeting€SummaryóóˆÐ f¦ ÐÌThe€Emission€Forum€currently€has€two€contracts€out,€with€these€contracts€designed€to:Ð >~  ÐÌÓ°r°œXÓ1)à F àcompile€the€1996€Base€Year€WRAP€Region€Emission€Inventory€€€€&Ð V" Ð2)à0 F àmake€projections€for€the€2018€Base€Case€&€Control€Case€WRAP€Region€Emission€InventoryÐB#FT$FT$ ÐÌFour€other€majoròòóó€issues€considered€in€the€proposed€2002€Emission€Forum€budget€are:Ð Ú% ÐÌ1)à F àWRAP€Region€Emission€Inventory€Preparation€GuidanceÐ ²ò' Ð2)à0 F àWRAP€Region€Emission€Inventory€ImprovementsОÞ(FT$FT$ Ðà0 F à(speciation,€temporal/spatial€allocation,€NHòò3óó,€organics,€dust)Њ Ê)FT$FT$ Ð3)à F àWRAP€Region€Emission€Inventory€Database€DevelopmentÐ v!¶* Ð4)à0 F àYear€2000€WRAP€Region€Major€Stationary€Source€SOòò2óó€Emission€InventoryÐb"¢+FT$FT$ ÐÌAt€this€meeting€the€contractor's€representative€(Dr.€Mark€Saeger€„€PES)€gave€a€presentation€of€the€resultsÐ :$z - Ðof€the€1996€Base€Year€Emission€Inventory€for€the€WRAP€Region,€and€the€forum€had€the€chance€toÐ &%f!. Ðclarify€potential€concerns€before€PES€finalizes€the€project€report.€€The€issue€of€the€missing€fugitive€dustÐ &R"/ Ðcomponent€of€this€1996€inventory€was€discussed,€and€plans€were€made€to€launch€a€project€to€collect€thisÐ þ&>#0 Ðinformation.€€Other€issues€were€discussed€regarding€this€'96€WRAP€inventory€including:€€the€status€ofÐ ê'*$1 ÐCanadian€emission€data€(current€updates€still€missing),€and€the€quality€of€the€Mexican€emission€dataÐ Ö(%2 Ð(incomplete€point€source€data,€prorated€area€source€data€which€assumes€a€city€profile€w/€more€mobileÐ Â)&3 Ðsource€emission,€and€less€agricultural€dust/wind€erosion€components€than€probable€for€the€rural€areas€ofÐ ®*î&4 Ðthe€Mexican€states).€€Also€discussed€was€the€general€task€of€conducting€quality€assurance€checks€on€thisÐ š+Ú'5 Ð1996€emission€inventory.Ð †,Æ(6 Ðâ âÐ r-²)7 ÐRegarding€the€2018€emission€inventory€projections,€the€contractor's€representative€(Jim€Wilson€of€Ô_ÔE.H.Ô_ÔÐ À Ðâ âPechan)€gave€a€briefing€on€the€status€of€this€project.€€Pechan€has€completed€the€base€case€2018€emissionÐ ¬ì Ðinventory€for€the€13€states€in€the€WRAP€region€(AZ,€CA,€CO,€ID,€€MT,€ND,€NM,€NV,€OR,€SD,€UT,€WAÐ ˜Ø Ð&€WY),€and€has€turned€that€inventory€over€to€the€"Jump€Start"€modeling€contractor€(MCNC).€€Work€onÐ „Ä Ðthe€base€case€projections€for€the€adjacent€Great€Plains€States€of€the€CENRAP€Regional€PlanningÐ p° ÐOrganization€(NB,€KA,€OK,€TX,€MN,€IA,€MO,€AK€&€LA)€is€proceeding,€as€is€the€work€of€compiling€theÐ \œ Ðcontrol€case€2018€projection.€€Pechan€anticipates€completing€these€tasks€at€least€by€the€end€of€the€year,Ð H ˆ Ðand€probably€somewhat€sooner.Ð 4 t ÐÌRegarding€the€outstanding€tasks€for€the€Emission€Forum,€a€draft€budget€has€been€proposed€to€the€TOCÐ  L  Ðand€the€WRAP€Planning€Team,€with€the€reviewed€version€to€be€presented€to€the€WRAP€Council€at€theirÐ ø 8  ÐNovember€'01€Salt€Lake€City€meeting.€€The€budget€targets€2002€spending€of€about€$120K€for€databaseÐ ä $  Ðdevelopment,€inventory€compilation€and€QA€activities,€$125K€for€EI€guidance€and€about€$210K€for€EIÐ Ð  Ðimprovements.€€The€individual€tasks€under€these€headings€were€discussed,€and€forum/workgroupÐ ¼ü  Ðmembers€were€assigned€to€prepare€Scopes€of€Work€for€contractor€RFP's€on€these€projects.Ð ¨è  ÐÌThe€Forum€also€received€a€tour€of€the€UC„Riverside€College€of€Environmental€Research€&€Training€and€Ð €À Ðreceived€an€explanation€of€the€various€research€projects€going€on€at€that€institution.€€These€includeÐ l¬ Ðresearch€into€smog€formation€with€a€large€new€solar€simulation€atmospheric€chamber,€automotiveÐ X˜ Ðdynamometer€testing€emissions€from€various€driving€cycles€and€conditions,€"real€time"€sampling€ofÐ D„ ÐHeavy€Duty€Diesel€(Ô_ÔHDDÔ_Ô)€truck€emissions€using€a€mobile€sampling€trailer,€research€into€bothÐ 0p Ðautomotive€and€fugitive€ammonia€emissions,€research€quantifying€paved€road€dust€emissions,€andÐ \ ÐLIDAR€research€into€entrainment,€removal€&€regional€transport€of€dust.Ð H ÐÌà@ll#ìàòòMeeting€DetailsóóˆÐ à  ÐÌà@ss"ìàðHð€Announcements€ðHðˆÐ ¸ø ÐÌIt€was€announced€that€there€will€be€a€meeting€in€Montreal€on€November€15òòthóó€on€International€EI€issuesÐ Ð Ðbetween€Canada,€Mexico€and€the€United€States.€€That€date€happens€to€conflict€with€the€semi„annualÐ |¼ ÐWRAP€meeting€in€Salt€Lake€City€so€the€Emission€Forum€Co„Chairs€will€be€unable€to€participate.€€It€wasÐ h¨ Ðdecided€that€Lee€Gribovicz€would€send€out€an€E„Mail€with€details€of€the€meeting,€asking€if€any€other€ofÐ T ” Ðthe€Emission€Forum/Workgroup€members€might€be€able€to€represent€the€WRAP€and€bring€back€a€reportÐ @!€  Ðof€the€proceedings.Ð ,"l! ÐÌBob€Lebens€of€WESTAR€noted€that€his€organization€had€released€a€Request€for€Proposals€(RFP)€onÐ $D # Ðfugitive€dust€September€21òòstóó.€€As€discussed€further€in€the€"Emission€Inventory€Improvements"€section€ofÐ ð$0!$ Ðthese€minutes,€this€project€will€field€test€the€"Gillette€Box€Model"€to€evaluate€its€performance€inÐ Ü%"% Ðpredicting€dust€deposition€and€other€atmospheric€dust€removal€mechanisms€which€limit€participation€ofÐ È&#& Ðfugitive€dust€in€regional€transport€of€visibility€impairing€pollutants.Ð ´'ô#' ÐÌà@c c ìàðHð€1996€Baseline€WRAP€Emission€Inventory€ðHðˆÐ Œ)Ì%) ÐÌThe€Emission€Forum€has€approximately€an€$80,000€contract€with€Pacific€Environmental€Services€(PESÐ d+¤'+ ÐProject€Manager;€Mark€Saeger)€to€compile€the€1996€WRAP€region€base€year€emission€inventory,Ð P,(, Ðutilizing€the€EPA's€1996€NET€as€the€initial€basis€for€this€inventory.€€PES€augmented€and€updated€theÐ <-|)- ÐNET€with€information€solicited€directly€from€the€WRAP€region€states.Ð (.h*. ЇThis€1996€Emission€Inventory€was€compiled€for€the€13€state€WRAP€Region€(AZ,€CA,€CO,€ID,€MT,€ND,Ð À ÐNM,€NV,€OR,€SD,€UT,€WA€&€WY)€and€for€the€nine€Great€Plains€states€that€are€part€of€the€WRAPÐ ¬ì Ðmodeling€domain€(NB,€KA,€OK,€TX,€MN,€IA,€MO,€AR€and€LA).€€The€inventory€is€available€forÐ ˜Ø Ðdownloading€at€the€WRAP€website€(http://www.wrapair.org),€on€the€ò òEmission€Forumó ó€page€of€theÐ „Ä Ðò ò"Committees€and€Forums"ó ó€section€of€the€site.€€Summaries€of€this€data€have€been€made€in€EXCELÐ t´ Ðspreadsheet€format;€broken€down€into€total€emissions€by€state,€and€then€further€broken€down€intoÐ d¤ Ðsummaries€of€the€emissions€for€each€county€within€the€state.€€Ð P  ÐÌPES€prepared€a€"Draft€Final€Report"€for€this€project€and€the€current€draft€is€also€available€at€the€sameÐ ( h Ðlocation€noted€above€on€the€WRAP€website.€€At€this€meeting€Mark€Saeger€gave€a€verbal€overview€of€theÐ  T  Ðproject,€noting€that€his€mandate€was€to€compile€the€"best€possible"€1996€WRAP€Region€EmissionÐ  @  ÐInventory,€using€the€NET€(now€known€as€the€National€Emission€Inventory;€NEI)€as€a€base,€andÐ ì ,  Ðimproving€it€with€state€and€locally€supplied€data€where€available.€€He€gave€a€summary€of€his€results€asÐ Ø  Ðpresented€in€the€PES€report,€identifying€states€that€submitted€data,€problems€encountered€utilizing€thatÐ Ä  Ðdata,€problems€obtaining€Canadian€data€(no€current€data€was€forthcoming€because€of€confidentialityÐ °ð  Ðissues)€and€problems€encountered€with€the€Mexican€EI.Ð œÜ  ÐÌRegarding€state€supplied€data,€he€noted€that€16/22€states€supplied€updated€point€source€data,€while€onlyÐ t´ Ð9/22€states€contributed€area€source€data.€€Dr.€Saeger€went€over€a€number€of€statistics€showing€theÐ `  Ðimprovement€of€EI€quality,€when€data€from€state€and€local€agencies€is€available.Ð LŒ ÐÌRegarding€Mexico,€PES's€subcontractor,€the€Eastern€Research€Group€(ERG)€compiled€a€northwestÐ $d ÐMexico€emission€inventory€for€three€states€(Baja€California€Norte,€Sonora€&€Chihuahua).€€However,Ð P Ðarea€sources€in€the€EI€were€extrapolated€from€urban€area€emissions€compiled€for€three€border€towns:Ð ü< ÐCiudad€Jurez,€Mexicali,€and€Tijuana,€and€spatially€allocated€by€population€data.€€Thus€this€prorated€areaÐ è( Ðsource€inventory€assumes€a€city€profile,€where€it€is€likely€that€there€is€more€mobile€source€contributionÐ Ô Ðand€less€agricultural€dust€than€is€really€present€in€rural€areas.€€Also,€the€point€source€inventory€wasÐ À Ðincomplete,€including€only€the€major€point€sources€of€Nacozari€(ð ð12,000€TPY€SOòò2óó)€and€CananeaÐ ¬ì Ð(ð ð135,000€TPY€SOòò2óó€in€1996,€but€shut€down€in€1999)€copper€smelters,€and€the€large€Carbon€I€and€II€coal„Ð ˜Ø Ðfired€power€units€(ð ð3,000€MW€total€unscrubbed,€emitting€near€150,000€TPY€SOòò2óó€each).€€Fifteen€otherÐ „Ä Ðpoint€sources€in€Chihuahua€and€Coahuila€were€identified€from€other€inventories,€however€these€had€SOòò2óóÐ p° Ðdata€only€available.Ð \ œ ÐÌReview€of€this€inventory€has€raised€a€number€of€concerns€by€WRAP€participants,€with€Dennis€SchwehrÐ 4"t! Ðespecially€concerned€about€the€lack€of€natural€gas€fired€power€plants€showing€up€in€the€data.€€DennisÐ  #`" Ðasked€about€the€definition€of€Point€&€Area€sources.€€Dr.€Saeger€replied€that€the€national€cutoff€was€set€atÐ  $L # Ð100€TPY,€but€it€was€noted€that€at€their€own€discretion,€some€states€identify€point€sources€at€some€lowerÐ ø$8!$ Ðthreshold€below€the€100€TPY€guideline.€€Thus€data€for€some€point€sources€may€be€combined€into€an€areaÐ ä%$"% Ðsource€category€such€as€utility€or€industrial€fuel€combustion,€eliminating€the€details€of€specificÐ Ð&#& Ðgeneration€facilities.Ð ¼'ü#' ÐÌRoy€Doyle€noted€that€the€substitution€of€state/local€data€was€the€strength€of€the€WRAP€'96€EmissionÐ ”)Ô%) ÐInventory€exercise,€to€obtain€a€more€detailed€product.€€The€review€of€the€data€allowed€for€detection€andÐ €*À&* Ðadjustment€for€possible€area€source€double€counting.Ð l+¬'+ ÐÌAs€the€inventory€has€been€used€by€modelers€at€MCNC€and€in€the€2018€projections,€other€problems€haveÐ D-„)- Ðbeen€revealed€regarding€stack€parameters,€location,€and€etc.€€It€was€noted€that€emission€mass€rates€get€aÐ 0.p*. Ðlot€of€scrutiny€in€emission€inventories,€but€other€data€is€not€looked€at€nearly€as€closely.€€PES€hasÐ À Ðdeveloped€a€set€of€default€stack€parameter€based€on€SCC€codes,€and€has€worked€to€resolve€problemsÐ ¬ì Ðwith€missing€location€data.€€Dr.€Saeger€will€add€the€details€of€the€adjustments€to€an€amended€report€andÐ ˜Ø Ðwill€facilitate€posting€of€that€revision€on€the€WRAP€website€soonš.Ð „Ä ÐÌà@——ìàðHð€'96€EI€Issues:€€Fugitive€Dust€ðHðˆÐ \œ ÐÌIn€the€Fall€of€2000,€the€WRAP€gathered€an€expert€panel€to€assess€problems€with€fugitive€dust€emissionÐ 4 t Ðinventories,€especially€with€regard€to€windblown€soil€erosion,€and€fugitive€dust€from€paved€and€unpavedÐ  ` Ðroads.€€The€"Draft€Final€Report"€of€this€expert€panel,€along€with€a€two€page€summary€of€their€elevenÐ  L  Ðfindings,€are€both€available€for€downloading€on€the€Emission€Forum€page€of€the€WRAP€website.Ð ø 8  ÐÌAfter€the€WRAP€Technical€Oversight€Committee€reviewed€the€status€of€this€problem,€the€Expert€PanelÐ Ð  Ðwas€reconvened€to€meet€at€the€June€'01€AWMA€Orlando€convention.€€The€conclusion€is€that€there€isÐ ¼ü  Ðsubstantial€variability€between€states€in€the€way€these€dust€inventories€are€derived,€with€inconsistentÐ ¨è  Ðactivity€data€collected,€and€there€is€skepticism€as€to€how€much€of€this€dust€actually€participates€inÐ ”Ô  Ðregional€transport€for€Regional€Haze€visibility€impairment.€€The€Panel€presented€a€series€ofÐ €À Ðrecommendations€to€the€TOC€in€July,€where€they€noted€that€"it€would€be€a€wasted€effort€incorporatingÐ l¬ Ðfugitive€dust€emissions€estimates€into€the€REMSAD€model"€that€is€currently€being€used€for€the€WRAPÐ X˜ Ð"Jump€Start"€modeling€by€MCNC€in€North€Carolina.Ð D„ ÐÌAlthough€the€WRAP€'96€Base€Inventory€contains€such€anthropogenic€generated€emissions€likeÐ \ Ðconstruction€dust€and€agricultural€tilling,€because€of€the€uncertainties,€that€Inventory€does€not€currentlyÐ H Ðcontain€these€wind€erosion€generated€fugitive€dust€emissions.€€The€Mobile€Source€Forum€is€working€onÐ ô4 Ða€contract€to€calculate€the€paved€and€unpaved€road€dust€totals,€using€updated€EPA€methodology€andÐ à  Ðemission€factors,€and€at€this€meeting€it€was€noted€that€the€Emission€Forum€also€must€work€on€filling€thisÐ Ì  Ðgap.Ð ¸ø ÐÌWayne€Leipold€and€Carrie€MacDougall€were€the€EF€representatives€at€Orlando,€and€at€this€meeting€theyÐ Ð Ðwere€jointly€assigned€the€task€of€preparing€a€Scope€of€Work€to€fill€this€gap.€€They€will€coordinate€theirÐ |¼ Ðwork€with€the€Research€&€Development€Forum€working€to€defining€"natural€background"€for€fugitiveÐ h¨ Ðdust.€€After€they€complete€this€draft€SOW,€it€will€be€circulated€through€the€EF/EIWG€members€forÐ T ” Ðcomments,€and€then€they€will€work€with€WRAP€Staff€(Rich€Halvey)€to€get€an€RFP€prepared€forÐ @!€  Ðimplementing€the€project.€€The€bidder€review€team€to€select€a€contractor€will€consist€of€these€twoÐ ,"l! Ðmembers,€joining€the€EF€&€TOC€Co„Chairs.€€Then€Wayne€and€Carrie€will€manage€the€contract€toÐ #X" Ðcompletion.€€It€was€noted€that€we€have€$125K€dedicated€to€this€task€in€the€2002€proposed€budget.Ð $D # ÐÌÔ& Ä Ôà@‹ ‹ ìàðHð€'96€EI€Issues:€€Canadian€Emissions€ðHðˆÐ Ü%"% ÐÌIt€was€noted€that€Canadian€law€has€a€confidentiality€provisions€whichÔ'ÄÜ%¾DÔ€restricts€the€distribution€of€pointÐ ´'ô#' Ðsource€emission€data.€€As€of€this€meeting,€the€EPA's€Greg€Stella€was€working€on€obtaining€CanadianÐ  (à$( Ðdata,€and€Lee€Gribovicz€explained€that€he€talked€with€Mr.€Stella€after€the€last€EF€meeting€in€May.€€AtÐ Œ)Ì%) Ðthat€time,€Canada€was€promising€to€provide€an€updated€emission€inventory€as€soon€as€some€of€theÐ x*¸&* Ðprovinces€completed€their€data€processing.€€The€data€was€expected€in€a€few€weeks,€but€as€of€thisÐ d+¤'+ Ðmeeting,€it€has€not€yet€been€delivered.Ð P,(, Ðâ âÐ <-|)- ÐÔ& ° Ôâ âà@ñ ñ ìàðHð€'96€EI€Issues:€Quality€Assurance€ðHðˆÐ À ÐÌThe€proposed€Emission€Forum€2002€budget€has€$20,000€to€Quality€Assure€the€1996€Emission€Inventory.€Ð ˜Ø ÐÔ'°ÀæGÔLee€Gribovicz€was€assigned€the€task€of€drafting€a€Scope€of€Work€and€getting€an€RFP€prepared.€€It€wasÐ „Ä Ðdiscussed€that€implementation€of€this€project€should€be€completed€by€the€end€of€the€year.Ð p° ÐÌLater€discussion€revealed€some€confusion€by€those€members€present€as€to€exactly€what€the€EmissionÐ H ˆ ÐForum€should€do€to€develop€Emission€Inventory€Protocol/Guidance€document€that€we€have€placed€onÐ 4 t Ðthe€proposed€2002€budget€(see€discussions€under€the€"Emission€Inventory€Guidance"€section€of€theseÐ  ` Ðminutes).€€It€was€suggested€that€as€part€of€this€QA€project,€the€contractor€should€also€be€charged€withÐ  L  Ðdeveloping€a€SOW€for€the€Protocol/Guidance€task€before€the€Emission€Forum.Ð ø 8  ÐÌà@YY ìàðHð€2018€Projections€ðHðˆÐ Ð  ÐÌSince€the€last€Emission€Forum€meeting€in€May,€E.H.€Pechan€&€Associates€prepared€a€June€28òòthóó€(finalÐ ¨è  Ðrevision)€proposal€to€respond€to€the€WRAP's€RFP€on€preparing€projections€for€the€2018€Base€Case€andÐ ”Ô  ÐControl€Case€Emission€Inventories.€€Two€RFP's€were€initially€issued;€one€for€compiling€the€EconomicÐ €À Ðand€Population€Growth€Factors€necessary€for€projecting€the€1996€Base€Year€Emission€InventoryÐ l¬ Ðforward,€and€a€second€for€actually€making€those€2018€Emission€Projections.€€The€projections€tasksÐ X˜ Ðincluded:€1)€identifying€existing€major€point€sources€in€WRAP€states€that€were€not€originally€part€of€theÐ D„ ÐGCVTC€"transport€region"€(WA,€MT,€ND€&€SD);€2)€developing€"new€source€profiles"€for€pollutionÐ 0p Ðcontrol€equipment/efficiency€in€various€source€categories;€3)€developing€retirement€factors€for€sourceÐ \ Ðcategories€in€the€thirteen€state€WRAP€Region€(AZ,€CA,€CO,€ID,€€MT,€ND,€NM,€NV,€OR,€SD,€UT,€WAÐ H Ð&€WY)€and€in€the€nine€state€CENRAP€Region€which€is€part€of€the€defined€modeling€domain€(NB,€KA,Ð ô4 ÐOK.€TX,€MN,€IA,€MO,€AK€&€LA);€4)€defining€existing€national,€state,€local€&€tribal€air€quality€emissionÐ à  Ðcontrol€regulations€to€be€implemented€through€2018;€5)€identifying€additional€retrofit€control€options,Ð Ì  Ðcosts€and€efficiencies€for€existing€area€and€point€sources;€6)€combining€the€economic€and€populationÐ ¸ø Ðgrowth€information€into€òòemission€growth€factorsóó€for€modeling;€and€7)€running€the€Integrated€AssessmentÐ ¤ä ÐSystem€(IAS)€model€to€project€2018€emissions.Ð Ð ÐÌA€lack€of€bidders€forced€the€WRAP€to€consolidate€the€two€projects,€with€Pechan€subcontracting€theÐ h¨ Ðeconomics/population€portion€to€Brian€K.€Edwards€Associates€of€Illinois.€€The€total€bid€for€the€twoÐ T ” Ðprojects€was€$173,910,€and€the€contract€was€issued€July€5,€2001.Ð @!€  ÐÌThe€IAS€model€has€three€basic€pieces:€1)€base€year€data,€2)€control€actions€of€how€base€year€dataÐ #X" Ðchanges€over€time€&€3)€sector€demand€data€to€show€growth.€€The€EF€issued€a€$24K€contract€to€ShawnÐ $D # ÐKendall€to€re„engineer€this€model€aided€by€the€Arizona€DEQ's€technical€help€from€their€software€expertÐ ð$0!$ ÐDr.€Samir€Ô_ÔBadriÔ_Ô.€€However,€because€of€delays€in€completing€this€IAS€Re„Engineering€(the€refined€IASÐ Ü%"% Ðstill€has€not€been€delivered€as€of€this€meeting),€Pechan€chose€to€utilize€"IAS„like"€logic€to€complete€theÐ È&#& Ðprojections€for€this€contract.Ð ´'ô#' ÐÌThis€date€Jim€Wilson€gave€a€presentation€describing€the€tasks€required€of€the€project,€summarizing€theÐ Œ)Ì%) Ðstatus€of€current€activities,€and€listing€the€remaining€items€left€to€complete€on€the€project€("to€do€list").€Ð x*¸&* ÐHe€noted€that€a€draft€2018€base€case€inventory€for€the€initial€WRAP€13€state€region€was€delivered€to€theÐ d+¤'+ Ð"Jump€Start"€modeler,€MCNC,€earlier€in€the€week€of€this€meeting.€€He€provided€summary€sheets€of€theÐ P,(, Ðpoint€and€area€base€case€2018€emission€projections€for€all€six€pollutants€in€these€13€states€and€listing€ofÐ <-|)- Ðthe€files€by€"SCC_ID"€for€total€SOòò2óó€emissions€from€the€13€WRAP€region€states.Ð (.h*. ЇIn€reporting€the€Project€Overview€and€Background,€he€noted€that€the€IAS€was€based€on€1990€emissionsÐ À Ðdata,€and€made€projections€every€10€years€through€the€end€of€the€first€planning€period€(ie/€1990,€2000,Ð ¬ì Ð2010€&€2020).€€He€explained€Pechan's€use€of€an€"IAS„like"€logic€to€make€these€projections,€adjusted€toÐ ˜Ø Ðactually€hit€the€year€2018.€€He€noted€that€the€contract€called€for€Pechan€to€attempt€to€"mimic"€utility€typeÐ „Ä Ðretirement€for€the€"other"€industry€category,€using€plant€lifetimes€obtained€from€the€Industrial€SectorÐ p° ÐTechnology€Use€Model€(ISTUM).€€He€noted€that€he€was€required€to€revise/update€the€profiles€forÐ \œ Ðemission€control€factors€in€various€industrial€source€categories.€€Then€Pechan€was€to€develop€newÐ H ˆ Ðeconomic€and€population€growth€factors€to€make€the€base€&€control€case€projections.Ð 4 t ÐÌMr.€Wilson€noted€that€thus€far€Pechan€has€focused€on€WRAP€states,€but€will€be€adding€the€Tier€I€&€TierÐ  L  ÐII€states€(CENRAP€Region)€to€the€projections€in€the€next€couple€of€months.Ð ø 8  ÐÌRequests€had€been€sent€out€to€obtain€data€on€the€initial€year€of€operation€for€major€point€sources,€inÐ Ð  Ðorder€to€apply€the€ISTUM€retirement€factors,€but€state€response€was€very€"spotty"€(only€CO,€ND,€SD,Ð ¼ü  ÐWY€&€NM€responded).€€As€a€default€Pechan€will€use€a€set€percentage€rate€of€retirement€per€year,€forÐ ¨è  Ðthose€sources€where€the€start„up€year€was€not€available.€€He€was€asked€about€the€definition€of€sourceÐ ”Ô  Ðretirement,€and€he€indicated€that€Pechan€was€using€the€date€by€which€emissions€will€change€toÐ €À ÐNSPS/BACT.Ð l¬ ÐÌRegarding€revised€growth€&€control€factors€calculations,€he€noted€that€IAS€had€only€10€sourceÐ D„ Ðcategories,€while€Pechan€was€making€these€calculations€at€the€SCC€level€for€area€sources.Ð 0p ÐÌRequests€had€been€sent€out€for€population€growth€and€economic€projections,€and€again€state€responseÐ H Ðhad€been€less€than€overwhelming.€€He€noted€that:Ð ô4 ÐÌÓ°'°rÓð˜ðà0 û à12€of€13€states€had€suppled€population€dataÐÌ ûT$ûT$ Ðð˜ðà0 û à4€of€13€states€had€supplied€personal€income€dataиøûT$ûT$ Ðð˜ðà0 û àCA€&€SD€had€suppled€economic€output€dataФäûT$ûT$ ÐÌAgain,€the€survey€of€the€CENRAP€states€is€yet€to€come.Ð |¼ ÐÌPechan€then€used€REMI€models€incorporated€into€EGAS€4.0€to€make€the€projections,€and€in€hisÐ T ” Ðpresentation€slides,€he€provided€sample€calculation€for€the€three€cases:Ð @!€  ÐÌ1)à0 û àinitial€date€of€operation€is€known,€unit€not€retired€in€2018Ð#X"ûT$ûT$ Ð2)à0 û àinitial€date€of€operation€is€known,€unit€is€retired€in€2018€Ð$D #ûT$ûT$ Ð3)à0 û àinitial€date€of€operation€is€not€known,€generic€annual€retirement€rates€(%€per€year)€are€used€toÐ ð$0!$ Ðdistinguish€existing€vs€new€source€emission€fractionsÐÜ%"%ûT$ûT$ ÐÌRegarding€the€"To€Do"€list,€Pechan€must€still€incorporate€'96€capacity€utilization€in€utility€emissionÐ ´'ô#' Ðforecasts,€account€for€new€construction€since€1996,€distinguish€sub„county€non„attainment€or€tribalÐ  (à$( Ðboundaries,€obtain€control€regulations€and€growth€factors€for€the€CENRAP€states,€make€the€projectionsÐ Œ)Ì%) Ðusing€IAS€logic,€request€pollutant€control€factors€from€the€California€ARB,€and€prepare€the€draft€report.Ð x*¸&* ÐÌRegarding€future€projections€for€Mexico,€the€EF€Co„Chairs€decided€to€"flat€line"€2018€MexicanÐ P,(, Ðemissions€because€of€the€significant€uncertainty€in€the€current€1996€inventory.€€It€was€decided€thatÐ <-|)- Ðmaking€growth/retirement€projections€from€such€an€unstable€base€would€be€an€exercise€in€futility.Ð (.h*. ЇRegarding€the€control€case€projections,€Mr.€Wilson€was€told€that€he€should€simply€implement€theÐ À ÐMarket€Trading€milestones€(apply€BART€in€"non"€transport€regions€states).€€It€was€noted€that€theÐ ¬ì ÐPollution€Prevention€Forum€is€working€on€an€RFP€to€determine€an€economic€rationale€forÐ ˜Ø Ðconservation/renewables€power€generation,€but€that€information€was€not€yet€available€to€include€inÐ „Ä Ðcontrol€case€projections.Ð p° ÐÌà@XXìàðHð€Emission€Inventory€Guidance€ðHðˆÐ H ˆ ÐÌAt€the€May€'01€EF€Meeting,€during€discussion€of€a€WRAP€Region€Emission€Inventory€database,Ð  ` Ðmembers€raised€the€issue€of€consistency€in€the€preparation€of€the€emission€inventories€themselves.€€ItÐ  L  Ðwas€noted€that€EI€preparation€methods€vary€significantly€between€political€jurisdictions,€and€it€wasÐ ø 8  Ðagreed€that€it€was€necessary€for€the€WRAP€to€produce€some€source€of€guidance€manual€or€protocol€toÐ ä $  Ðencourage€state/local/tribal€jurisdictions€to€produce€a€relatively€consistent€emission€inventory.€€ThisÐ Ð  Ðwould€be€followed€by€workshops€held€to€introduce€and€reinforce€proper€methodology€for€EI€personnel€inÐ ¼ü  Ðthe€agencies.€€A€Workgroup€was€created€consisting€of€Lee€Gribovicz,€Dennis€Schwehr,€Roy€Doyle,Ð ¨è  ÐBrock€LeBaron,€Sally€Otterson€and€Carrie€MacDougall€to€look€at€this€question.Ð ”Ô  ÐÌA€teleconference€call€was€held€July€31,€2001€with€this€workgroup,€and€members€generally€felt€that€it€wasÐ l¬ Ðinappropriate€for€the€WRAP€to€try€to€duplicate€existing€guidance€from€such€sources€as€EIIP,€AP„42,Ð X˜ ÐSTAPPA€and€etc.€€They€felt€that€it€was€the€prerogative€of€the€state/local€agencies€to€calculate€emissionsÐ D„ Ðusing€their€best€judgement€as€to€the€most€appropriate€methodology€available,€but€that€there€should€be€aÐ 0p Ðcontingency€plan€to€deal€with€discrepancies.€€They€felt€that€the€WRAP€should€try€to€develop€someÐ \ Ðmechanism€for€states€to€provide€documentation€for€alternate€EI€methods.Ð H ÐÌSally€Otterson€wrote€a€draft€SOW€for€this€coordination€process,€envisioning€a€protocol€defined€as€anÐ à  Ðemission€inventory€preparation€and€quality€assurance€plan€(IPP/QAP).Ð Ì  ÐÌThis€meeting,€members€again€concurred€that€we€must€be€able€to€deal€with€anomalies€and€uncertainties.€Ð ¤ä ÐThey€felt€that€we€needed€feedback€on€where€the€gaps€in€the€data€were,€and€what€are€we€going€to€do€to€fillÐ Ð Ðthose€gaps?€€The€thought€was€that€we€should€focus€on€those€areas€where€sensitivity€analyses€show€thatÐ |¼ Ðthere€is€high€variability.€€It€was€noted€that€passage€of€the€proposed€Consolidated€Emission€ReportingÐ h¨ ÐRule€(CERR)€will€require€states€to€develop€statewide€inventories€and€lead€to€better€consistencyÐ T ” Ðnationwide.Ð @!€  ÐÌThe€general€feeling€was€that€information€on€point€sources€was€all€right,€but€basically€we€are€concernedÐ #X" Ðwith€problems€encountered€in€calculating€area€source€inventories.€€But€the€forum€was€unsure€exactlyÐ $D # Ðhow€to€address€this€question€of€EI€guidance,€and€suggested€that€as€part€of€the€Scope€for€the€contractorÐ ð$0!$ Ðselected€to€complete€the€1996€Base€Year€Quality€Assurance,€that€the€project€include€a€task€to€write€aÐ Ü%"% ÐScope€of€Work€for€this€guidance.€€It€was€suggested€that€the€document€all€the€source€categories€involvedÐ È&#& Ðin€the€WRAP€EI€process,€identify€which€of€these€categories€are€the€main€sources€of€inconsistency,€andÐ ´'ô#' Ðpropose€some€protocol€for€resolving€these€differences.Ð  (à$( ÐÌÔ& ° Ôà@!!ìàðHð€WRAP€Database€Development€ðHðˆÐ x*¸&* ÐÌThe€Emission€Forum€has€been€discussing€the€eventual€development€for€a€WRAP€Regional€Database€toÐ P,(, ÐÔ'°x*yÔhouse€the€EI€information€compiled€for€RHR€implementation.€€Possible€uses€of€such€a€database,€include:€Ð <-|)- ÐÐ (.h*. ÐÓ °ÜŒ °'Ó„à ° àtracking€MTF€milestones€(SOòò2óó€only,€every€year)Ð À Єà0 ° àtrading€program€triggerЬì°T$°T$ Єà ° àtracking€Clean€Air€Corridors€(every€year)Ð ˜Ø Єà ° àtracking€fire€program€emissionsÐ „Ä Єà ° àproviding€for€future€modeling€to€demonstrate€visibility€improvementÐ p° Єà ° àtracking€the€mobile€source€emissions€budgetÐ \œ Єà ° àprovide€for€public€information€(GIS€components)Ð H ˆ Єà ° àQA€functionsÐ 4 t ÐÌWith€the€milestone/CAC€tracking€functions€this€database€becomes€critical€for€states€to€implement€theirÐ  L  Ððð309€SIP's€(ie/€required€by€the€end€of€2003).€€With€approximately€24€months€lead€time€required€toÐ ø 8  Ðdevelop€the€system,€it€appears€that€the€Emission€Forum€must€act€on€this€project€by€the€end€of€this€2001Ð ä $  Ðcalendar€year.Ð Ð  ÐÌThe€agenda€listed€issues€involved€in€the€database€discussion€including:Ð ¨è  ÐÌòòò ò„Inclusive€Participation€of€All€Stake€Holders€During€Developmentóóó óÐ €À ÐPrevious€discussion€made€it€clear€that€there€must€be€good€coordination€with€the€tribes€to€assure€that€theÐ h¨ ÐTDDWG€Emission€Inventory€template€being€developed€will€provide€the€same€data€format€as€required€byÐ T” Ðthe€database.€€Also,€the€tribes€will€want€to€know€what€information€is€available€for€a€specific€tribeÐ @€ ÐÌòòò ò„Format€of€Database€(Platform,€Display,€Compatibility€w/€TDDWG€Efforts)ó óóóÐ X ÐThe€Ambient€Monitoring€&€Reporting€Forum€currently€has€the€WRAP€ambient€monitoring€dataÐ @ Ðavailable€on€a€Colorado€State€University€website:Ð ì, ÐÌà@mmìàhttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/wrap/ˆÐ Ä ÐÌThere€was€talk€earlier€of€joining€the€AMRF€and€placing€the€Emission€Inventory€information€on€this€sameÐ œÜ Ðsite.€€AMRF€Co„Chair€Marc€Pitchford,€is€the€contact€to€investigate€this€CSU€option.Ð ˆÈ ÐÌÔ& ¼ Ôòòò ò„Permanent€Residence€(Academic€Institutions€{CSU?},€WRAP€RMC?,€State€Host?,€Tribal€Host?Ð `  Ð{NTEC?},€€WESTAR?,€Other€Options?)ó óóóÐ H ˆ ÐThe€location€and€keeper€of€this€database€has€not€been€selected€(see€above€issue).Ô'¼`õ‚ÔÐ 0!p  ÐÌòòò ò„Separate€Issues?:€1)€Database€Development€€„€&€„€€2)€Long€Term€Managementóóó óÐ #H" ÐIn€earlier€meetings,€the€EF€discussed€the€fact€that€there€may€be€two€separate€issues€involved€in€theÐ ð#0 # Ðdevelopment€of€the€database,€and€long€term€management€of€the€data.Ð Ü$!$ ÐÌòòò ò„GIS€Componentó óóóÐ ´&ô"& ÐThe€Forum€discussed€a€Colorado€initiative€in€which€emissions€from€the€Federal€Lands€in€the€state,€mustÐ œ'Ü#' Ðbe€separately€identified.€€Colorado€has€wondered€whether€the€WRAP€database€will€have€the€ability€toÐ ˆ(È$( Ð"cookie€cut"€out€those€emissions€from€Federal€Lands.Ð t)´%) ÐÌAlso,€it€is€clear€that€the€database€queries€must€be€able€to€"cut€out"€other€sets€of€data€by€area€and€byÐ L+Œ'+ Ðpollutant.€€Specific€RHR€tracking€information€that€will€be€needed€includes€Clean€Air€Corridor€tracking,Ð 8,x(, Ðas€will€other€elements€such€as€"natural"€emissions,€fire€emissions,€mobile€source€budgets€and€etc.€€ThusÐ $-d)- Ða€Global€Information€System€(GIS)€component€is€necessary€for€incorporation€into€any€WRAP€database.€Ð .P*. ÐIt€was€suggested€that€one€task€to€be€included€in€SOW€is€for€the€contractor€to€build€the€queries€necessaryÐ À Ðto€"bang€against€the€database"€for€retrieving€specific€information.Ð ¬ì ÐÌòòò ò„MTF€Allowance€Trackingó óóóÐ „Ä ÐIt€was€noted€that€a€major€function€of€the€EI€database,€is€to€identify€stationary€source€SOòò2óó€emissions€forÐ l¬ Ðmilestone€tracking€and€market€trading€program€trigger€evaluation.€€Therefore€this€database€requires€goodÐ X˜ Ðcoordination€with€the€Market€Trading€Forum.Ð D „ ÐÌIt€was€pretty€well€agreed€during€this€meeting€that€Emission€Inventories€are€growing€more€national€isÐ  \ Ðscope.€€Lee€Gribovicz€reported€the€call€from€the€August€inter„RPO€meeting€for€common€formats€andÐ  H  Ðaccess€to€Emission€Inventory€information€between€RHR€Regional€Planning€Organizations.€€It€wasÐ ô 4  Ðstrongly€suggested€that€the€WRAP€EI€database€incorporate€the€NEI€Input€Format€(NIF€2.0).Ð à  ÐÌTalks€noted€that€there€are€three€databases€(point,€area€&€mobile),€but€after€consideration,€there€will€alsoÐ ¸ø  Ðbe€a€"biogenic"€emissions€total€that€must€be€incorporated,€as€well.Ð ¤ä  ÐÌAt€this€meeting€Steve€Aalbers€and€Mike€Sundblom€were€jointly€assigned€the€task€of€preparing€a€ScopeÐ |¼ Ðof€Work€to€establish€this€EI€Database€.€€They€will€coordinate€their€work€with€the€Tribal€DataÐ h¨ ÐDevelopment€Workgroup€and€the€Market€Trading€Forum.€€After€they€complete€this€draft€SOW,€it€will€beÐ T” Ðcirculated€through€the€EF/EIWG€members€for€comments,€and€then€they€will€work€with€WRAP€StaffÐ @€ Ð(Rich€Halvey)€to€get€an€RFP€prepared€for€implementing€the€project.€€The€bidder€review€team€to€select€aÐ ,l Ðcontractor€will€consist€of€these€two€members,€joining€the€EF€&€TOC€Co„Chairs.€€Then€Steve€and€MikeÐ X Ðwill€manage€the€contract€to€completion.€€It€was€noted€that€we€have€$80K€dedicated€to€this€task€in€theÐ D Ð2002€proposed€budget.Ð ð0 ÐÌà@~ ~ ìàðHð€Emission€Inventory€Improvements€€ðHðˆÐ È ÐÌThere€are€three€areas€targeted€in€the€Emission€Forum€2002€proposed€budget,€for€emission€inventoryÐ  à Ðimprovements.€€They€are:Ð ŒÌ ÐÌÓ °‘½°Ü°Óà0 e à*à0‘eT$eT$àTemporal€&€Spatial€Allocation,€Pollutant€SpeciationÐd¤‘T$‘T$ Ðà0 e à*à ‘ àAmmonia€&€Organics€Inventory€IssuesÐP eT$eT$ Ðà0 e à*à ‘ àFugitive€Dust€IssuesÐ